Namaskar Friends
Today I am Going To Share My New Important Research
This research teach you technical valuation of nifty
Generally Stock market corrects twice in every year but small investor unable to catch this buying opportunity.
If you learn how to calculate technical valuation of nifty which I going to teach you in this video then you easily catch both corrections points
With help of my method you also able to recognize overvaluation of stock market
Please do not use my method in F&O because soon I upload a separate video with stop loss to teach you how to use this method in F&O
If we able to recognize nifty undervaluation or overvaluation then we use it in
To Buy Mutual Fund Units At Lower Price
After this research, I closed my 4000/- per month SIP in HDFC Equity Fund why?
Because when my method show nifty is down then I invest one time 24000/- instead of 4000/- per month
If anyone has 1000/- per month SIP then he/she need to invest 6000/- lump sum amount in every 6 months when my method recognizes a buying point in nifty.
And with help of this method you can trade directly in Nifty, Many investors does not know how to buy nifty in cash?
You may buy Reliance Nifty Bees ETF which traded like a share, One Unit of Reliance Nifty Bees ETF=1/10 of Nifty, For example, if nifty=9400 then price of ETF=940/- per unit
When I teach you how to recognise down and upper level of nifty then when the market traded on down point you may buy nifty ETF or any mutual fund units and when the market traded at the upper point you may sell them to earn profits.
You may get 2 buying opportunity every year but this is not fixed, in any particular year maybe you get only 1 buying opportunity or maybe get 2,4, or nil buying chance, I will give you practical examples from last 12 years.
With help of this method your risk is very low and when you understand this method "Stock Market is like a children's game for you"
With help of this method you earn money from nifty ETF or from mutual funds or buy shares at lower price, So watch this full video with patiance (do not skip any point)
So If you do not understand method then please do not dislike or do not put the negative comment, first ask your concern in the comment, I got per day 400-500 comments and I try my best to reply most of them.
First of all, you need to download historical price daya of nifty, I provide links of my earlier videos in Hindi and English click on " i " sign above you find both links.
Or I provide my Excel sheets in description box, go to description box you find google drive link and download my Excel sheet from this link.
I download last 12 years historical price of nifty for deep understanding of this theory.
I think you remember that " Nifty may down twice in every year. It means every year market gives near 2 chance for fresh buying"
Every year has 365 Days
We minus 52 Sundays and 52 Saturdays from 365 because we need a near about figure that how many days market will open in a year?
Now we minus near 13 market holidays like holy dipawali Id ul zuha etc, we git final trading days=248
So in a trading year near 248 days market will open and we need to find 2 downsides in every year so we divided 248 by 2 and get 124 days figure.
So remember 124 days, I hope you understand all things till this point, now we continue next step...
This is a theoretical part so if you feel difficult to understand then please do not worried I am also going to telling you practically.
Now I going to telling my " Sharegenius Ratio of Nifty Technical Valuation" (SRNTV) which is equal to SRNTV=Close Price/124DMA
If you see last 12 years Excel sheet which I provided in description box then you find in last 12 years this ratio never go above 1.46 and never down below 0.59 (however market is uncertain and this may be possible in any year)
we take an average of 1.46 and 0.59 which is near 1.03
So 1.03 is a basic Nifty SRNTV in last 12 year
So now we assume that Nifty maximum upside is 0.45 points from this basic figure 1.03=1.03+0.45=1.48 and maximum downside is below 0.45 points from this basic figure 1.03 means 1.03-0.45=0.58
I hope you understands till this point now I am going to tell how to use this ratio in stock trading or mutual funds units buying
In last 12 years nifty maximum going 0.45 point above from 1.03 and maximum0.45 down from 1.03 however, this is not a sure range but nifty never broke this range in last 12 years.
Now we divide this 0.45 by 5 because in want to average out 5 times to get full benefitted from this method
Because in normal market year market will down near 0.09 from 1.03 and up near 0.09 from 1.03, if you see last 5-7 year data in my Excel sheet then you find market normally trade in 0.09+ and - range.
But in 2008 Market fall badly and this ratio down till 0.59 so when market going to bear phase then it will down 0.45 points
So if this will happen then we will need to average out 5 times means first we buy at 1.03-0.09=0.94 ratio
For example, I record this video on 12 may 2017 and today nifty SRNTV ratio is =1.08 so in future when nifty will correct and i find ratio will down till 0.94
If this ratio corrects till 0.94 then I invest my money in HDFC equity fund.I recently closed my SIP of 4000 per month in this fund because I wait when SRNTV ratio correct till 0.94 I invest one time 24000/- in this fund.
Normally you got only 0.09+ and 0.09- movement but in 2008 market was down badly and in 2009 it recovered sharply then this ratio give movement till 0.45 points so we take a chance of 5 time average out in this situation
It means we buy our first lot after 0.09 point fall from 1.03 but if market will fall more we average out after 0.18, 0.27, 0.36 and in rarest condition 0.45 point fall
Normally It traded in a range of 0.09 high and 0.09 low for example on 12 May 2017 when our nifty traded near all-time high then It SRNTV=1.08
So on this higher valuation, I do not invest in mutual funds when this ratio correct till 0.94 then I start investing if you see last 12 year data then you find every year we got this type buying opportunity.
So when this ratio correct till 0.94 I will not only invest in mutual funds but also buy some units of nifty ETF and sell them again when this ratio up till 1.12 (1.03+0.09=1.12), Now theoretical part of this video ends.
Now I tell you practical part of this theory if you do not understand then please do not worry and take it seriously because If I write a book on this theory then I will earn huge royalty but I do not want money from you I want to protect your money in stock market so I provide it at free of cost.
This is the excel sheet which I provided in description box
I start my stock market investment in 2005 so I download last 12-year historical price data of nifty in this Excel sheet, If you want to download Nifty historical data then on above I sign you find link of my earlier video
I give a heading " Sharegenius Ratio Of Nifty Technical Valuation" and add 2 columns in this sheet 124 DMA and Close Price/124 DMA
In row 126 we put a formula in column F= Sum(E3: E126) because data start from E3 and total 124 data till E126, Now we divide it from 124 to get 124 DMA, Sum(E3: E126)/124
I hope you already read my Chandu Chinki book where I tell how to calculate 200 DMA, I also teach calculating 200 DMA in some of my earlier videos we just replace 200 DMA with 124 DMA, and Ratio=Close/124 DMA
So In last 12 Year, this ratio not down below 0.58 and not up above 1.46 and normally give 0.09 point movement from 1.03
When market down badly in 2008 then it correct till 0.58 otherwise it traded in a range of 0.94-1.12 and 1.03 is average value of this ratio
Look in Sheet 1 where I paste and short these data from smallest to largest and you see maximum range 1.46 minimum 0.56 and average value is 1.03
When we again go to data sheet we find in 2008 market will down till 0.59 points so I make provisions for 5 times average out because if unfortunately market will enter in bear phase then you avail maximum benefits from average out
So you see in 2008 it will down till 0.59 and in 2009 up till 1.46 otherwise it give only 0.09 point movement and 0.94 level come much time for fresh buy.
In 2017 situation on 12 May 2017 this ratio is 1.08
On 21 Nov 2016 due to demonetization effect this ratio will down till 0.93 (1.03-0.09=0.94) If you buy some Nifty ETF at that leval
You buy near 7929 and sell near 9400 and that time you may also buy other mutual funds units.
If you read my chandu chinki book then you knew every time when nifty fall below 1.03 to 0.94 we but some nifty ETF or buy other shares because when market is down stock also traded at attractive valuation or buy mutual fund units
Or when this ratio up 0.09 points mean go to 1.03+0.09=1.12 that time you understand market valuation is stretch now and you will start profit-bookings by selling some of the mutual fund and ETF units and or sell 1/5 part of your holdings.
So every 0.09 point fall from 1.03 you may start fresh buying and every 0.09 rise from 1.03 you may start selling, So now you able to recognize market levels for buying and sellings.
I hope you like this video, please share your thoughts in comments because when I read your comments I get more energy for my research, Please also like and share this video for your friends, Namaskar
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