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CAN SLIM Growth Investing William O Neil English - Duration: 18:39.
Hello everyone, my name is Nrupen and in this video we'll take a look on investing method
of William O' Neil, who as per my personal opinion is world's greatest techno fundamental
investor.
In this video I'll try to give small description of this book, "How To Make Money In Stocks
A Complete Investing System" in which he describes his Growth Investing System CAN
SLIM.
The basic investing ideology of William O' Neil was invest in growth of business not
on baseless ratios and numbers.
From his book I learned why PE is possibly the most useless number on which investors
try to invest.
His statement, "A great deal of P/E analysis is based on
personal opinions and theories that have been handed down through the years by analysts,
academicians, and others, whose track records when it comes to making money in the market
are both questionable and undocumented.
To say a company is undervalued because at one time it was selling at 22 times earnings
and it can now be bought for 15 is ridiculous and somewhat naive.".
Pretty much makes looks everyone who keeps talking about PE bonkers because his own performance
as investor enabled him to be youngest investor to buy a seat on Wall Street.
His book helped me understand almost all methods of investing that involves PE in them are
weaker form of investing methods because almost everything about PE is theoretical and I should
stop looking for PE no matter how I want to invest.
His idea of investing is simple, invest in growth of business because growth of business
leads to increased earnings and increased earnings lead to increase in stock prices.
I took his advise of throwing PE out of window and started looking for businesses with earning
potential.
At present my investing method focuses just on earning potential and I am very happy with
kind of results I am getting with it.
Before we take a look on CAN SLIM here are some mistakes which as per him majority of
investors make and suffer losses.
1.
Focusing only on when to buy, without any idea about when to sell.
2.
Taking action on immature buy signals in greed of more profit and thus ending up with nothing
more than loss.
3.
Fearing to exit positions in loss only to make more losses.
4.
Not following your sell rules in greed of more profit.
5.
Crying over losses that you never made in market.
6.
Buying second rate stocks because they are value stocks.
He admitted he also made similar mistakes with very brutally honest attitude.
CAN SLIM is hard rules investing method, which means none of the rules that are listed in
CAN SLIM should be broken while investing to use it to its maximum potential.
CAN SLIM is actually acronym of list of attributes that a great growth company posses to outperform
rest of the market.
As per Will you can not invest as growth investor without learning charts.
All growth stocks show similar kind of price volume activity, and to prove his point he
has compiled a list of more than 100 growth stocks from history, you can take a look on
them in his book.
A growth business always forms a consolidation pattern before exhibiting upside.
As per Will, Cup-With-Handle, Saucer, Flat Bases, Ascending Bases, High Tight Flags,
Linear bases and Double Bottoms are most trustworthy chart patterns when it comes to reflect successful
consolidation.
Once stock matches CAN SLIM criteria on fundamental front, stock must also show any one of these
chart patterns.
C in CAN SLIM represents Current Quarterly Earnings and Sales should be increasing.
As per Will to qualify first rule of CAN SLIM a stock must show increase in quarterly earnings.
For example Q3 Earnings of 2017 should be greater than Q3 Earnings Of 2016 and minimum
growth should be 18 to 20% or more.
As per Will 5 to 10% growth is insufficient to trigger good upward momentum.
Again you must not compare current quarter's earnings with last quarter's earning.
Means Q3 Earnings of 2017 should not be compared with Q2 Earnings of 2017.
Also make sure that accelerating earnings should be supported by accelerated sales.
If earnings are increasing but sales are not then there is something fishy going on and
it is a warning signal.
So C tells us Current Quarterly Earnings Per Share (EPS) should show increase of minimum
18 to 20% followed by net increase in Total Revenue.
"A" in CAN SLIM represents increase in Annual Earnings.
As per Will company should annually grow at least by 25%, as per his study of growth stocks
successful growth stocks show minimum 36% increase per year.
As per him minimum Return On Equity for last 3 years should be minimum 17%, consistency
is everything.
Unless stock shows more than 17% ROE for 3 years without fail it will not qualify for
second rule of CAN SLIM.
He advises to look for minimum 20-25% ROE each year.
"N" in CAN SLIM represents New Management, New Product, New Expansion Plans and New Consolidation
Patterns.
Stock prices can not rally up if there isn't anything new to drive prices up.
As per Will a company should bring something New to the table, either it be new management,
New Product or New Expansion Plan.
If company fulfills something new criteria then you'll see a new consolidation pattern
forming on price chart.
You have to purchase stock as soon as stock breaks out of consolidation.
"S" stands for less supply and more demand.
The stock should have less number of outstanding share because less outstanding shares increase
liquidity which help prices rise and fall quickly.
To avoid loss due to liquidity look for company in which company owners and management have
held majority of stocks.
In today's scenario this information is not easy to get, better have a strict selling
rule.
If stock goes excessive splits then supply will increase which might lead prices down
so it is better to liquidate your position if company declares 3 for 1 or 5 for 1 stock
splits.
Same doesn't apply for 2 for 1 stock splits.
Stock should have low debt to equity ratio to justify supply and demand of its shares.
A stock with high debt to equity ratio have huge risk associated with it.
Aggressive companies are not worth buying if they can't manage their debt.
"L" in CAN SLIM stands for Leader Or Laggard.
Leader doesn't mean biggest company, a leader stock is one, which not only out performs
the market but also the other stocks in its industry.
To know your stock is leader or not compare it to industry index and other stocks of industry
that are outperforming index.
Honestly I would recommend not to go in hassle of comparing your stock with every other stock
in industry.
If it is outperforming industry index and it also matches other criteria you should
buy it, and the reason I am recommending this is because a good comparison can take a very
long time.
Growth stocks have tendency to move faster.
So if you'll be spending a lot of time to conduct proper comparison, you will miss the
right price to purchase.
Having a stock that is better than good but less than best is lot better than having none
of them.
"I" stands for Institutional ownership.
Will insists that stock you are buying should be held by few very reputed institutions.
Institutions means Mutual Funds, Hedge Funds or Wealth Management Firms.
And these institutions should have proven record of performance.
The reason for this is, in spite of the fact that there are 1000s of stocks in stock market,
almost each stock has passed eyes of some institution.
If a stock doesn't have institutional ownership it means that company has been rejected from
best guys of business.
There are 100% chances that everyone who rejected that stock might be wrong but while growth
investing for any reason we do not prefer to take any risk.
"M" in CAN SLIM stands for Market Direction.
Will says you should only enter market when it is on bull.
You should book profits and wait for new bull market to reinvest your money if market turns
direction and goes bear.
After stock qualifies all letters of CAN SLIM it is time to check which of his favorite
consolidation pattern has formed over price chart.
He emphasizes that you should buy stock as soon as it breaks consolidation.
By the way, he would sell stock immediately if prices of stock would fall 8% within same
week.
Though this was a good condition then, it can't be applied to today's market scenario.
You are advised to device your own selling rule before you put this method into action.
He would sell if stock would generate 20% upside within 3 months, on other hand if stock
would create 20% upside in a month he would hold that stock for more than 3 months expecting
multi bagger gains.
Now advantages of his method is that it helps you find best growth stocks and keeps you
invested in best performers.
People who have manged to find stocks that match CAN SLIM has multiplied their money
from 3 fold to 10 folds in a single year.
Will advocated for a concentrated portfolio in which he would focus on keeping only best
performing stocks and removing under performers.
Will would remove all those stocks from his portfolio which would fail to perform more
than 20% in 3 months.
His portfolio strategy was strict, if stock doesn't perform as per his rules then he would
say good bye to them and focus on highest performers.
This helped Will pocket big profits with help of small number of stocks in portfolio in
which all stock would seem to performing like crazy.
The disadvantage of his method is that it is extremely difficult to find stocks that
really match all conditions set by William O Neil.
In any given bull market there are hardly 10 to 15 stocks that can match all conditions
set by Will.
And if you fail to find them in time, you most likely would also miss opportunity to
invest in them.
CAN SLIM is hard rule investing method which means if stock fails to meet even one condition,
stock will fail to qualify for investment.
Now Will's investing model works because it is very practical.
If a business is earning more and becoming bigger every single day there is no reason
why it's stock prices will not start moving up.
For example, here's chart of Porwal Industries, Porwal Industries is ideological match to
Will's Investing method.
Finding mathematical match is very difficult therefore we'll for now stick to this example.
On technical front, Will advised to look for consolidation pattern aka base, forming above
50 day EMA.
To understand logic behind this, first you have to understand how technical analysis
works.
First understand this, Technical Analysis and trading on that technical analysis are
2 totally different skills, you may be able to analyze stocks technically but can you
trade or not, is another question.
To create chart setup we follow specific steps.
Step one is to select the Price Theory that you want to use for your setup.
Keep in mind all Price Theories in one form or other states one and the same thing and
can be used with any method of analysis, only naming culture differs.
Most popular price theory is Dow Theory and it is widely used for indicator trading, I
am also an indicator trader but I prefer Price Cycle Theory.
Price Cycle Theory is kind of very unknown price theory because its name collides with
Hurst's Price Cycle.
Any search related to Price Cycle Theory usually ends with Hurst's Cycle.
Next is Crowd Psychology Theory specially used while Pattern or Candle Stick Trading
and finally Elliot Wave Theory which is quite popular among Geometric Traders.
Keep in mind, any theory can be used with any method of trading.
Popularity of Theory specific to trading method, does not change the final result of setup.
And the reason for that is almost all price theories are in one form or another are derivatives
of Economic Cycle.
Which means when you are trading price charts, you ain't really trading just price you are
trading levels of supply and demand.
All indicators, all setups and all concepts of technical analysis are dedicated to help
you trade Economics working behind business.
Economic Cycles can be as small as 1 day to 1 hour and as long as weeks, months, years
to decades.
And therefore we have golden rule of Techno Fundamental Analysis, "Technical Always
Follow Fundamentals".
And it works irrespective of selected time frame because same is the case with Economic
Cycles.
When this came to my notice I changed my fundamental investing method to match new theory of successful
business with respect to Economic Cycle of business.
Any stock that qualifies to be successful based on Economic Cycle of business matches
qualities of a value as well as growth stock.
Good part is, it is easier to analyze stocks based on Economic Cycle of business than any
other method of analysis.
In case you want to learn how to analyze stocks based on its Economic Cycles links are in
description of this video.
Contrary to what you believe, fundamental analysis is much easier than Technical Analysis.
Now as per Price Cycle Theory price moves by forming price cycles.
With respect to uptrend first minor cycle is used to detect beginning of new upside,
trade is usually taken on second cycle and exit has to be made before trend ends or at
the end of trend.
Will stated if stock matches CAN SLIM criteria then first let prices come above 50 Week EMA
and enter trades on formation of consolidation patterns.
Now most consolidation patterns form as beginning of new price cycle, mostly at beginning of
second minor cycle.
Form which we can say that if you found stock that matches all conditions of CAN SLIM, best
place to enter position is first pattern break.
Which brings us to chart of Porwal Industries.
Now as per definition of Uptrend, "In an uptrend price moves up by creating and breaking
newer resistances, result is series of higher highs and higher lows".
On chart you can see prices are moving up by creating and breaking newer resistances,
each new high is higher than previous high and each new low is higher than previous low.
Whenever such conditions are formed price usually start moving above 30 and 50 day EMA.
Now we know prices do not move with 100% consensus to definitions and concepts therefore we have
to work with close matches.
Therefore, the condition that prices must be above 50 week EMA, defined condition required
for uptrend, it included all conceptual close matches for fundamentally strong stocks with
active uptrend.
Next he advised to enter consolidation pattern break, which means he advised to enter second
cycle of uptrend.
It also tells us as per CAN SLIM model the best place to invest is first pattern break.
And as per ideological match Porwal Industries last week broke out of consolidation rectangle
also known as The Linear Base.
The 50 week EMA marked beginning of uptrend, then came first consolidation pattern which
formed and broke above EMA.
The first pattern break is best place to enter any stock that matches Will's investing ideology
because it automatically places you into second cycle which again with respect to Price Cycle
theory is best place to enter trades.
So last week when Porwal Industries broke its consolidation pattern, the entry price
of 54 was best place to invest in it.
Will's contribution to investing industry is that he helped investors understand why
looking for all ratios and numbers is waste of time and irrelevant.
He gave us a growth investing model based on which we can build a very good investing
method for ourselves.
What I consider as his biggest contribution is his emphasis on having a selling rule because
selling rules provide you idea about where and how profit should be booked and where
you should be ready to book loss or less profit.
Selling rules are something that help you pocket more than average profits.
While creating my investing model I took 3 elements from Will's model first is earning,
second is direction of price and third is having strict selling rule.
Will's method would focus on buying stock at its high and selling higher, I also buy
stocks at its 52 week high and sell it higher.
And just as he would sell if stock would match selling rule I also sell without hesitation
if stock matches my selling rule.
Finally we can say that Will's investing method demanded very high level discipline, from
which we can conclude that disciplined investing method helps you outperform markets by huge
margin.
Its no brainier that his students also made similar kind of profits as he made himself
and also won several investing competitions.
Finally as I always say, no video is good enough to justify original work of any investor.
To understand Will's method to its core buy his books and learn from them.
With that said thanks for watching this video and have a nice day.
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