LBW: Discussing how I haven't really explored Peak Oil or the subject very much on
this podcast yet I do hear a lot more often than then about this subject in
the mainstream press I mean I think in pretty-pretty like I I use the term
mainstream but corporate press the the sound they're kind of sounding the alarm
that like nothing has really changed since 2008 we've tried to make the
economy work and it's on the surface it seems to be going along as we expect it
to but we may be experiencing in the near future we will be experiencing
another financial crisis and it may be the crisis like it's not going to be
something that can be fixed by the Federal Reserve or or patched up and
that fracking and like you mentioned there's kind of a perfect storm it all
kind of happened simultaneously and you're pointing to how and the secret's
out fracking is being shown to to be a very short-term game what what does that
mean like what would I guess maybe to ask this in a question do you see there
being an interplay between the financial market and a financial crash and the oil
industry or do you see one kind of coming before the other and there kind
of maybe not not exactly working together to create a collapse but you
know what do you know I'm kind of what I'm getting at
RICHARD HEINBERG: Sure as I said earlier high oil prices tend to cause the economy to slow down
what would definitely cause the economy to slow down would be if there just
weren't enough oil to go around now there are a lot of folks talking about
peak oil demand these days that the idea that you know if we're if we're all
driving electric cars then the demand for oil will crash we won't just won't
need as much and the oil industry will just kind of you know slink away into
the into the bushes well that would be a nice way for things to to work out but
so far that's not how it's happening yes it's
true where all the electric cars are becoming more common my wife and I have
an electric car but we're very happy with you know now you see them all over
Northern California and so on but demand for oil globally is is still growing
there's no substitute for oil yet in aviation and shipping and as a result
we're still in a very dependent situation on this this energy key energy
resource and so if fracking fails what else could keep global oil supplies
growing well you look to Canada's oil sands or some sometimes they're called
tar sands the technical name for the stuff is bitumen there's a lot of the
stuff there but again nobody's making a profit producing it it's so hard to
transport and to to refine that it sells at a steep discount even with global oil
prices in the range of 70 bucks a barrel they're only getting about 25 to 30
dollars a barrel for the bitumen at the mine mouth and in Alberta and they can't
make a profit at that price prices are going to have to be much higher before
they can think about expanding operations so there's there's not likely
to be much growth there and of course you know if you look at from an
ecological standpoint bitumen is the worst of the worst you know the
carbon emissions associated with it the pollution of groundwater destruction of
boreal forests you know on and on and on it's you know it's a nightmare so if if
you take LTO away and there's not much growth too likely to happen in in
Alberta tar sands where else is there a lot of oil well Venezuela but if
Venezuela is having tremendous political problems and economic problems right now
their oil production is is declining rather than growing so
we're just kind of hanging on by the skin of our teeth right now as long as
tight oil is is still hanging in there and growing a little bit the world oil
supply looks okay but you know how how long can this go on that's the question
you know we're headed for a reckoning is it going to happen in 2019 2020 2021
it's most likely to happen sometime in the next 2-3 years or so we at
Post Carbon Institute have actually looked into this in pretty
great detail one of our fellows named David Hughes is a geoscientist who has
studied the geology geophysics of LTO production about as thoroughly as as
anyone we've issued some reports that you can look for and download for free
online look for shalebubble.org just google that or put it in your
search engine and you know you'll find a whole series of detailed reports with
graphs and everything we've hired the proprietary data from organization
called drilling info which is the same organization that the US government
relies on for its data on on US oil production so we're pretty confident in
our analysis and and it looks you know to us it looks it looks pretty grim
now yes granted the US Department of Energy looks at things differently they
say that LTO can continue growing until you know 2040 or even 2050 but the the
assumptions that they base those projections on are in our view extremely
optimistic and unrealistically optimistic more realistic assumptions
yield a peak and decline in U.S. LTO much sooner that than that and I should
mention that light tight oil exists many other parts of the world and
geologists oil companies have known that for the last decade and more but
production has not taken off for a number of reasons and part of that hat
just has to do with their you know the same conditions do not exist in
other countries and where there has been effort to produce LTO
in other countries like in Poland and Argentina a few other places it's
it's mostly been a financial failure okay so here we are
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