RICHARD HAAS GOOD TO HAVE YOU ALL ON BOARD
THIS MORNING. GREAT SHOW.
>> LET'S START WITH IRAN. >> ALL RIGHT.
SECRETARY OF STATE REX TILLERSON ANNOUNCED YESTERDAY THE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION IS PURSUING A COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW OF THE
OBAMA ERA POLICY IN IRAN. HE ADMITTED THAT THE COUNTRY IS
IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE 2015 NUCLEAR DEAL STRUCK WITH THE
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, BUT ALSO SAID THE DEAL WAS A FAILURE AND
IRAN WAS STILL A THREAT TO THE U.S. AND THE REST OF THE WORLD.
>> AN UNCHECKED IRAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TRAVEL THE SAME
PATH AS NORTH KOREA AND TAKE THE WORLD ALONG WITH IT.
THE UNITED STATES IS KEEN TO AVOID THE SECOND PIECE OF
EVIDENCE THAT STRATEGIC PATIENCE IS A FAILED APPROACH.
IRAN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE BRUTAL ASSAD REGIME IN SYRIA,
PROLONGING A CONFLICT THAT HAS KILLED APPROXIMATELY HALF A
MILLION SYRIANS AND DISPLACED MILLIONS MORE.
IRAN SUPPORTS THE ASSAD REGIME EVEN AS IT COMMITS ATROCITIES
AGAINST ITS OWN PEOPLE, INCLUDING WITH CHEMICAL WEAPONS.
THIS DEAL REPRESENTS THE SAME FAILED APPROACH OF THE PAST THAT
BROUGHT US TO THE CURRENT IMMINENT THREAT WE FACE FROM
NORTH KOREA. THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAS NO
INTENTION OF PASSING THE BUCK TO A FUTURE ADMINISTRATION ON IRAN.
THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR, IRAN'S PROVOCATIVE ACTIONS THREATEN THE
UNITED STATES, THE REGION AND THE WORLD.
>> OF COURSE, TILLERSON WENT ON TO SAY WHAT MOST FOREIGN POLICY
EXPERTS HAVE SAID FOR SOME TIME, THAT IRAN HAS BEEN THE EPICENTER
OF TERRORISM SINCE 1979. YOU ACTUALLY WATCHED TILLERSON
YESTERDAY MORAL IMPRESSED BY WHAT YOU SAW.
>> THE FIRST TIME OUT OF THE BOX I'VE SEEN HIM SPEAK.
HE CAME OFF WELL, TO SOUND SHALLOW.
>> THAT'S WHAT THIS SHOW IS ALL ABOUT.
>> I THINK THE BIGGER ARGUMENT -- OPTICS ARE
IMPORTANT. THE BIGGER ARGUMENT IS WHAT IT
TOOK TO GET THAT DEAL IN PLACE AND I'M NOT SURE THIS
ADMINISTRATION HAS A SENSE OF THAT YET.
HE SOUNDED GOOD. >> THE THING WITH REX TILLERSON
THAT WE'VE SEEN IS TILLERSON, RICHARD HAASS, HAS TOLD PEOPLE
AROUND HIM HE'S GOING TO LEARN THE JOB, NOT GOING TO GET OUT
FRONT TOO QUICKLY BECAUSE HE DOESN'T WANT TO HAVE TO CORRECT
HIMSELF ON THE RECORD. SO I THINK IT HAS BEEN A SLOWER
RAMPUP THAN A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE COMFORTABLE WITH.
HE IS MOVING FORWARD THERE. LET'S TALK ABOUT THE IRAN DEAL
MORE SPECIFICALLY. THE PRESIDENT HAS SAID THAT HE
WAS AGAINST THE IRAN DEAL, IT WAS ONE OF THE WORST DEALS EVER
STRUCK. AT THE SAME TIME IT IS A HARD
DEAL TO UNWIND, IS IT NOT, ESPECIALLY SINCE BARACK OBAMA
FRONT-LOADED ALL THE BENEFITS FOR IRAN.
>> THE IRAN DEAL IS ARGUABLY A FLAWED DEAL, BUT NOT A FAILED
DEAL. THAT'S WHERE THE SECRETARY OF
STATE GOT AHEAD OF HIMSELF YESTERDAY.
>> I AGREE. >> INCONSISTENT WITH WHERE THE
UNITED STATES IS TUESDAY NIGHT, ESSENTIALLY CERTIFYING IRANIAN
COMPLIANCE WITH THE DEAL. IT'S NOT THE DEAL I WOULD HAVE
NEGOTIATED. I THINK THE UNITED STATES WANTED
THE DEAL TOO MUCH, AGREED TO CERTAIN THINGS IT SHOULDN'T
HAVE. THAT'S THE ONLY DEAL WE HAVE.
IF WE WANT OUT OF IT, WE'LL ISOLATE OURSELVES, NOTOT IRAN.
I THINK THE REALITY IS IRAN IS DOING MANY THINGS THAT THE DEAL
HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH. FOR EXAMPLE, IMPERIAL PUSH FOR
INFLUENCE AROUND THE REGION. THAT IS A STRATEGIC CHALLENGE TO
THE UNITED STATES AND PARTNERS AROUND THE REGION.
IN THE NARROW NUCLEAR SENSE, THE DEAL IS PARKING THIS PROBLEM,
NOT SOLVING IT, PARKING IT FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS.
THE CHALLENGE PROBABLY FOR THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION IS GOING TO
BE WHAT DO YOU DO WHEN SOME OF THE DEALING, SOME OF THE LIMITS
ON IRAN EXPIRE? HOW DO WE THEN MAKE SURE IRAN
DOESN'T BREAK OUT AND BUILD ALL SORTS OF CAPACITY.
IRONICALLY, I WANT TO SAY ONE OTHER THING, THE SECRETARY AND
OTHERS NEED TO BE CAREFUL ABOUT TRASHING THIS KIND OF A
LIMITED -- TIME LIMITED DEAL BECAUSE QUITE HONESTLY IT'S THE
ONLY APPROACH THAT MAY WORK WITH NORTH KOREA.
WE MAY HAVE TO DO SOMETHING SIMILAR THERE.
>> BUT COKIE, I HEARD STRATEGIC PATIENCE, THE AGE OF STRATEGIC
PATIENCE IS OVER. FOR THOSE OF US WHO WORKED UP
DURING THE COLD WAR, STRATEGIC PATIENCE, IT WAS CONTAINMENT.
WE'RE JUST GOING TO WAIT THEM OUT.
WHAT'S SO DIFFERENT HERE IS THE CLOCK IS TICKING ON NORTH KOREA,
THE CLOCK IS PICKING FOR THE PEOPLE OF SEATTLE AND PORTLAND.
NOT TO BE MEL DRAMATIC. >> NORTH KOREA IS SCARY.
>> A SCARY SITUATION. IT SEEMS LIKE THEY'RE NOW
APPLYING STRATEGIC IK IMPATIENCE TO IRAN IS WELL WHICH IS
PECULIAR. WHY GO AFTER IRAN RIGHT NOW WHEN
WE'VE GOT ALL THESE OTHER PROBLEMS.
I WAS CURIOUS LISTENING TO SECRETARY TILLERSON TALKING
ABOUT SUPPORT FOR THE ASSAD REGIME BECAUSE I'M NOT CLEAR
WHERE THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION SUPPORTS THE ASSAD REGIME.
IT'S BEEN VERY UNCLEAR ABOUT WHETHER THEY THINK ASSAD HAS TO
GO OR NOT. IF THAT'S A REASON TO GO AFTER
IRAN, WHERE ARE WE IN ALL OF THAT MIX?
I THINK IT'S JUST AN ODD THING FOR HIM TO BE DOING RIGHT NOW
WHEN WE HAVE NORTH KOREA STARING US IN THE FACE.
>> SEEMS TO BE ANOTHER INSTANCE IN WHICH THE ADMINISTRATION IS
CAUSING FOREIGN POLICY CONFUSION TO ALLIES AROUND THE WORLD.
WE HAVE -- IT CAME IN CLEARLY WITH DONALD TRUMP SAYING THIS
WAS THE WORST DEAL AMERICA HAD EVER STRUCK AND HE WAS GOING TO
RIP IT UP EVEN DURING THE CAMPAIGN SOME OF HIS FOREIGN
POLICY AIDES RODE BACK FROM THE IDEA OF IT BEING RIPPED UP.
DURING THE FIRST FEW MONTHS OF THE ADMINISTRATION, THE IRAN
DEAL WAS NOD GOING TO BE RIPPED UP.
NOW WE HAVE SECRETARY TILLERSON OUT THERE TALKING TOUGH ABOUT
IRAN. IT'S ANOTHER INSTANCE WHEN YOU
HAVE DIFFERENT MEMBERS OF THE ADMINISTRATION WITH DIFFERENT
TERMS. YOU HAVE VICE PRESIDENT PENCE
TELLING THE U.S. TROOPS IN JAPAN YOU HAVE TO BE READY FOR SOM SO
KIND OF ACTION AGAINST NORTH KOREA.
AT THE SAME TIME YOU HAVE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE ADMINISTRATION,
McMASTER, STAYING WE ARE GOING TO STOP SHORT OF MILITARY
ACTION. THERE IS AN ELEMENT OF CONFUSION
THAT REFLECTS A LACK OF CLEAR
STRATEGY. >> I THINK THE MESSAGE THAT
DONALD TRUMP HAS SAID HE WAS GOING TO DELIVER AND THE MESSAGE
THAT DONALD TRUMP IS DELIVERING IS THAT I'M NOT GOING TO TELL
PEOPLE WHAT MY NEXT MOVE IS. I'M GOING TO KEEP THEM GUESSING.
THAT'S ON ONE SIDE. THE OTHER SIDE IS, AND WE'VE
SAID IT ALL ALONG, HIS OBSESSION WITH HIS BRANDING, STRENGTH,
STRENGTH. YOU ATTACH ALL OF THESE
THINGS -- HERE IS THE INTERESTING THING, PETER BAKER,
OUR ALLIES ACTUALLY, FOR THE MOST PART -- WE'LL PUT ANGELA
MERKEL OVER IN ANOTHER CORNER WHERE HER HAND IS NOT SHAKEN.
BUT MOST OF OUR ALLIES LIKE THIS AMERICAN APPROACH.
>> WELL, THEY LIKE AMERICAN LEADERSHIP IN THE WORLD.
THEY LIKE A ROBUST AMERICAN PRESENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST,
EUROPE AND ASIA WHICH THEY FELT, RIGHTLY OR WRONGLY, THAT BARACK
OBAMA WAS NOT EXHIBITING, THAT HE HAD RETREATED TOO FAR.
>> THEY DON'T LIKE AMERICA LEADING FROM BEHIND.
>> BUT THEY DO LIKE PREDICTABILITY AND RELIABILITY.
THE PROBLEM WITH THIS ADMINISTRATION AMONG THE ALLIES
IS THEY DON'T KNOW WHERE THEY'RE GOING AND WHAT THEY'RE GOING TO
DO. IF YOU'RE LIVING IN THE BALTIC,
WHAT YOU WANT TO KNOW IS THE UNITED STATES WILL STAND WITH
YOU IF RUSSIA STARTS TO DO SOMETHING.
THAT STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS BEEN
FOSTERING OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS LEAVES PEOPLE LIKE THAT
FEELING UNCERTAIN. >> ON NATO -- NATO HAS CERTAINLY
BEEN CLEARED UP. >> TURNING A CORNER.
>> YOU TALKED ABOUT SYRIA, COKIE, OUR POLICY IS WE'RE GOING
TO STRIKE OUT AGAINST ATROCITIES COMMITTED BY ASSAD --
>> THERE ARE ATROCITIES EVERY DAY.
>> COKIE, YOU KNOW THAT CHEMICAL WEAPONS CROSSES A RED LINE, THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS SAID FOR YEARS IS A RED LINE.
THERE ARE WARS ACROSS THE GLOBE. BUT AGAIN, THE INTERNATIONAL
NORMS. >> 2 MILLION SYRIAN CHILDREN WHO
ARE REFUGEES RIGHT NOW. WHAT ARE WE DOING ABOUT THEM?
NOTHING. THERE ARE ALL KINDS OF
ATROCITIES GOING ON. WHAT WE SEEM TO BE SEEING AND
IT'S JUST THESE ONE-OFFS OF SAYING WE'RE TOUGH, AND I DON'T
THINK THAT GETS YOU ANYWHERE. >> I'M NOT SO SURE THAT THEY'RE
ONE-OFFS, THOUGH. I GUESS THAT'S THE QUESTION.
THAT'S WHAT WE SEE OVER TIME IF THE DOTS ARE CONNECTED.
>> IF THEY'RE MORE THAN JUST ONE-OFFS, THAT WOULD SEEM TO BE
A VIOLATION OF THE CENTRAL TENET OF WHATEVER TRUMPISM IS IN
FOREIGN POLICY. REMEMBER, HE CAMPAIGNED TO THE
TO GET US INTO MORE STUPID WARS. WHEN YOU LOOK AT WHAT HE'S DOING
WITH IRAN AND HOW HE MAY BE MODERATING SOMEWHAT -- NOT GOING
TO, ON DAY ONE, AS HE PROMISED IN THE CAMPAIGN, A REPUBLICAN
PREREQUISITE FOR RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT, PROMISING TO RIP UP
THE TERRELL DEAL ON DAY ONE. NOW THAT HE REALIZES HE CAN'T DO
THAT, PETER HAS WRITTEN ABOUT FACING THE STEEP LEARNING CURVE
THAT IS THE PRESIDENCY. SO RECONCILING THOSE CAMPAIGN
PROMISES WHICH ARE A CENTRAL PART OF HIS BRAND, LIVING UP TO
THOSE, IS PRETTY DIFFICULT WHEN YOU ARE SUDDENLY THE PRATS.
>> MIKA, WHAT HE'S FOUND IS THAT -- WHAT THIS ADMINISTRATION
HAS FOUND IS THE LAST ADMINISTRATION PRETTY SMART AT
PUTTING THINGS IN PLACE THAT ARE HARDER TO UNWIND.
DOMESTICALLY BARACK OBAMA CONSIDERED HIS BIGGEST
ACHIEVEMENT THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT.
THAT'S PROVEN TO BE HARDER TO UNWIND.
THE FOREIGN POLICY -- THE IRAN DEAL IS WHAT HE WANTED TO GET
DONE FROM THE BEGINNING. AGAIN, THEY FRONT LOADED THE
BENEFITS SO MUCH FOR IRAN THAT YOU DO SIT THERE AND GO, GEE,
HOW EXACTLY DO WE UNWIEBD THIS DEAL NOW THAT THEY'VE GOTTEN ALL
THE
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