Haleh I have a question for you, you're an expert in AI right. When do you think there will be human level a eyes?
Hi, Jade, so usually videos on my channel in French. How's your French?
Je ne parle pas français
Okay
Well
Since you're such a great science youtuber, I'll do an exception for you for today
I'll be speaking in English. Even if it means every one of my viewers mocking my French accent. Thanks lis
So what do you think a human level a is possible? Could an AI ever?
Outperform a hearin at all tasks and for lower costs and if so why when could all of this happen these are fascinating?
Questions and it's extremely tempting to have a strong opinion about such controversial topics
But it's extremely important to first note that predicting
The future is an extremely challenging task
Especially given how complex the modern world is and how fast it is changing in particular
My big advice would be don't trust your guts and don't trust my guts either
Okay, sure, but it's still an important question. I mean a human level a eyes would imply such huge changes to the world?
How can we build up more of an informed answer? Well, even if no individual can be said to be reliable
It's often the case that the opinion of a community of experts yields more reliable answers
Yeah
So I found this article of the MIT Technology Review and it says that AI
Experts don't think that human-level AI is a threat to humanity. Wait. Did you see that?
There was a follow up to this article look at the bottom of the article
Yeah, that's what's weird. The follow-up article says the exact opposite. So what's going on here?
I guess that a key takeaway is that there are big disagreements among experts and that there are even
disagreements about what the agreements of the experts are
it's a big mess and unfortunately many AI experts are not helpful and
Prefer to present their own views on the future of AI as well as their own views on the consensus of the experts of AI
But there's also a more subtle and more fundamental reason why the two articles disagree. Do you see what I'm hinting at?
It's about how to think about risks I think I get or you're saying in the survey discussed in the first article
They asked AI experts to say when they thought there would be human-level AI
Whereas the survey discussed in the second article gave specific dates and asked AI experts to say the probabilities
They thought that there would be human-level AI by that time so it might be the case that nearly all AI
experts think that there won't be human level AI by
2050 but at the same time they think there's around a 10% probability that there will be human-level AI by 2020
Exactly, and when we discuss risks, it's crucial to think in such probabilistic terms indeed a nuclear plant
That is more likely not to explode is not necessarily a reassuring nuclear plant
definitely, even if it has a 1% probability of exploding I'd argue that that's still cause for concern and we should still prepare for the
Worst yes, and we should not give too much importance to surveys that only ask about most likely scenarios
it's important to consider surveys that discuss how likely different scenarios are and
fortunately for us in 2015 ai expert from the two main a AI conferences were surveyed that way and out of
1600 34 of them
352 accepted to answer the questions of the survey. You should check it out Jade. Let me see
Wow this survey asked AI experts to plot on a graph for any given date how likely they thought it would be that human level
A eyes would have arrived by that date
And here's what the curves of different experts look like
Also here in red is an aggregate of the predictions of the experts
When crucial thing to note when looking at the graphs is how much AI experts
Disagree, this is important to note since it means that no expert is representative of all experts in particular
There is a huge selection bias whenever you give great importance to one single expert. So let's look at the aggregate
according to the expert there's a
50% chance that by the Year 2060 one human level AIS will have arrived so we probably have a bit of time
According to experts human-level AI in a few decades away is the more likely scenario
But in terms of risks we should also care about less likely scenarios
They also say that there's a 10% chance of human level a eyes by 2025 lay, that's so soon
Yes, it is and 10% is far from being negligible again the nuclear plans with a 10% chance of exploding should
Definitely not be built yet
human-level AI may be even more explosive than a nuclear plant as we've discussed it in length on my channel and as Robert Mars does
On his human level a I possess existence of risks for mankind unless we massively invest on AI safety
Human-level AI may well destroy humanity
At least there is a strong case made by Nick Bostrom in his super intelligence book that we should regard the destruction of
Mankind as the default scenario if AI becomes superhuman
Okay, but 10% is the prediction of the experts. How likely is it that they're right about this?
I mean having experts made very earnest predictions in the past
they have they definitely have for instance Marvin Minsky famously thought that human-level AI would be there by the
1970s he had overestimated
The speed of progress but prediction errors would not always due to our estimation of future progress. In fact lately
It seems that the opposite holds more often for instance in the 2015 survey
Experts predicted that we take 12 years for a eyes to outperform humans at the game of go
But alphago beat lee sedol a few months later
Assuming that they are equally wrong about human-level AI
This suggests that we cannot rule out the possibility that a eyes will reach human level within a couple of years
I see I guess the unreliability of experts should be regarded as added uncertainty if the
Distribution of expert predictions for human-level AI looks like a bell curve. Then this added uncertainty should flatten the curve
but look this means that the probability of extreme events increases
Yes, indeed because experts are unreliable
we should in fact be even more concerned about the possibility of human level AI in a near future and
instead of a 10% probability of human level AI by
2025 we might consider a 10% probability of human-level AI by say
2022 okay
But this is very hard to imagine to reach human level wouldn't a eyes need some kind of real intelligence or consciousness?
And what about energy consumption?
The human brain is very efficient can computers really be as efficient as the human brain
There are definitely huge hurdles to get to human-level AI
But research is progressing at an impressive pace both in terms of hardware and software
In terms of hardware for instance the so called Akuma's law suggests that the energy consumption of a single computation is dropping
exponentially as it is divided by two every 18 months and
Innovations in paralyzed if not decentralized computing and data storage may allow this trend to carry on
So then what about the software side don't we need some kind of major breakthrough?
Probably it's hard to tell to understand the software challenge
It's useful to get back to an insurance 1950 paper in these paper
He suggested that a large part of the complexity of the human brain is critical to reach human level intelligence
Yet the human brain has around a million billion synapses
If 1,000 of them are essential for human level intelligence
It suggests that an AI will need to be of size at least one terabyte to which human level
Today the size of large areas is usually of the order of Giga bytes and the largest AIS
Seem to slowly reach one terabyte this suggests that in terms of complexity
We may soon which what's necessary for human level intelligence
Still it's hard to imagine that this is sufficient to reach human level a eyes
I mean don't we still need to train those a eyes? Yes indeed
but much of the necessary data is arguably already out there to reach human level large enough and well designing of a I
Could read Wikipedia again and again and watch science youtube videos
It's one thing to be exposed to this data, but could an AI actually learn from this data
Could it lead to a real intelligence again?
it's hard to tell but it's
Important to note that it is hard to tell it seems that many people believe that since AIS are just doing mechanical operations
They cannot compete humans. But the thing is that long the mechanical operations are actually full of surprises
They can lead to results that we humans cannot predict not because the operations are complicated
In fact, each operation is extremely simple. However, a is performed a huge number of such simple operations
This is something that our brains cannot do and this is why our brains cannot predict the outcome of a eyes computations
Which means that they will lead to results that surprised us
Alan Turing put it brilliantly
He wrote the view that machines cannot give rise to
Surprises is do I believe to a fallacy to which philosophers and mathematicians are particularly subject
This is the assumption that as soon as a fact is presented to a mind all consequences of that facts bring into the mind
Simultaneously with it. It is a very useful assumption under many circumstances
but one too easily forgets that it is false a
natural consequence of doing so is that one Lynne assumes that there is no virtue in the mere working out of
consequences from data and general principles
Exactly and thus we should not be overconfident about what we think that huge eyes can do their long
Computations will likely surprise us
well
in fact
If you've been following the recent developments of a guy you should probably have been surprised by invidious photorealistic images
YouTube's automated captioning and Google duplexes phone calls
You know me who you hi, I'd like reserve a table for Wednesday the 7th
for seven people
It's for four people well people win
Wednesday at 6 p.m. Oh
Actually really sir for like up were like a 5 people for you for below you can come
How long is the way usually to be seated fuck when tomorrow?
For next Wednesday the 7th. Oh
No, it's not too easy. You can call me back. Okay?
Oh
I got you bang
Again that was real call with many of these examples where the calls quite don't go as expected
But the assistant understands the context to nuance it new tasks for wait times in this case and handle the interaction
Gracefully, yes
We should be prepared for potential surprising developments in AI that would give them human level reasoning abilities in
particular given all we've discussed I would claim that there is a strong case for saying that human-level AI by
2025 should be given a probability larger than 1% and come to think of it
1% is huge. Especially given how disruptive this human-level AI would be
This is why I would argue that we should really take the threat of human-level AI seriously and invest massively on AI
safety
Hey, I hope you've enjoyed this video a big. Thank you to
Jade from an item
I highly recommend her YouTube channel is one of the greatest things out there and of course her videos about physics
Which is her background are really really good, but I strongly recommend even more her videos about computer science ideas
Particle, there's one on the singularity and there also videos about machine learning overfitting or the optimal stopping problem
I highly recommend these videos and also we just did a video on Jade's channel
It's about a pragmatic solution to implementing value loading by simulating a virtual democracy on extrapolated versions of ourselves
for self-driving cars faced with the trolley problem
Before coming back to the comments of the previous video
I want to highlight again the article that I've written about how to handle a human level AI and in particular how to load values
Into a which is a very very very difficult problem
I strongly recommend
anyone who's a bit interested by these ideas to go and have a read of these paper as I think it is the most
Important thing that I would have ever written my life - about the komono
Opinion ticket is a sweet la Vida solution automatic
So our kuhmo about the mission poor isn't what they plan to the heat as a Muto here Samuel Genesee endless
Possibilities because Veronica qf9 hace. Una she'll go eight. No, this one here is a
Upon what did they seem pretty fancy algae off non-apology on due to tech community particular
Individual so in so high-pass seed if your could you to visit the floor if not a section. Oh boy. Yeah
Somos de cuisine no a/c power finish here
Sacramento mucho to mom to come you, so I would say some people Sentinel - Kevie
Christoph Michelle a general doesn't miss a video. So you're a fat killer the pugilist underwater if I'm the
sequester would improve achieve easy the pan you ate if you will it's
Really cool did you get a shock?
media more character
Yeah, I said this position for young fillies in seven men you say what you owe him some clearly just a partial body to
oppose him because
There was no education
Draconian was too early flame
duties as from pass on
Duty to numeric. Ooh, patently burns X naught open or short 1finity parafoil a shell Gribble a addition individual
But I was molten sick on citizens on extermo MPG
severely unique cupola water indication keyword
talented
computer from restitution pacified UK so national
Say cash whiskey no me some bleep
Job. Yes coupon. Just hold on a
Kinnaman back guarantee Domini it shows
There as you go sniff get you more Benishek become or reduce it radically befell the reform education national
past gives ya beaucoup to the person role a case where this you know our
Foursome. Oh they make them talk a
situation Symington toe
Through inequity prison some coupons not fulfilled decision when you go to a PTA is our phone book with the time P suppose
you know senior
subs a necessity given would not canola for the
11 new CEO days. No senior. It's a demonic with Danone will be J. But
2005 tracking PK a so source qtz the technology come
later, go eternal combination 205 Jean pong world, you know educativa precook toka - ah,
she actually let you guys know soon I'd say so I've
Shown to computers. If you ask a busy effective nopon. Do you read the ones he also said no Appa action action or limit a
Computer you just go come on - on YouTube potato. I'm wonderful book. Mucho gusto. Oh come on the video youtube poop world
even on beyond today detection revealed a
Formula walk you ma'am. Yeah the YouTube phenomenon city on wax. Yeah - total net. It's a travesty that one IKEA single tonight a
dictum like stone
Ain't no
Fuckin simple super here. They come to go to school a dick on Facebook
They come to a tweet a link to youtube if you really want to step on
Your paws on Martinez on the meritorious to the envy job with Ricky Satya a calico Simon
We said you could clowns in yet and you know, you know
It's like a public here to
The clean air you could divine your presence WebP is important corrupt because most popular group
Do you know if you have to screw a cool content? I suppose fun options, you know
seppuku mija
Individual each week like only cumin Kentucky beyond
supplement pass a predict into Bitcoin you would
speculate on growth a
CL facade vicinity hot Louis acting modem. We know dude Jenny do a dramatic sir adversely girl who a girl motivation illegality
Cool Sean tonight yet to see is to other do anthem. We are typical
Wet if you put a needle on it on Queenie new up like the men would also no
Dooku won't pay Lincoln, you know, please professor that left leg on the shell exploit a $25 for Turkey
Yo you so especially complicated owner happy mom, you know? Yeah, they're a party Alice muna
lost his notebook is
On bullshit is human profile is actual manual computer. Mafia
He continually repelled alpha don't say domain Pau Zotoh a Malloy Siana kotelnyk wah-wah
Looking older the track also su sitio de tousser on trophies
hell
yeah, see a
Vortex monsoon more enormous you're associating media and pull on silly word boy after you tell your concern
I'll prove expertise into an empty wave. Holy fire audition - a
necessity upon Hotel hotel decision wife in Yeldon even
more one more one more, you know a
Lugano Jamison confesses
Calculus was gonna be chiefly octopi accurately soonish near Houma hide of God who in nuna's
man, she seemed to pretty to myself what choice -
-41 in the pros - pawn years, especially in Europe in short quite develop a lead Kazuma
You cooperate - you applied also - Yahoo!
element array at
The Met compress this is same a Popeye's don't exterminate humanity
Well, no more power ratios and to all don't permit episode which must include replica some - computer by secure
Massage video passage knee pad champion Pasi wife. Yeah Dyneema. Sofia one more flippy. I
Just gotta save a miss a video clip conclude offer last year. He sewer nothing else athlete is yet
No confuse Joey do not give I'm on fire optimist a I'm effectively promote Dante Joseph failure
Didn't we know I'm all taken a favor by more and more people
He or she turns up a secular powerful 9u probability can only media blowed up at Machpelah
You can hold your new society. Don't assign your Ania mmm
Does he add a description very Monica Civic psychopathically your Jean who receives focus even a very competent specialist University
Electricity Rhodesia job isn't Eliza question 20. No Zelda
Nagumo suppose Vermont will feature your humanity 800 me a soy sauce and former persecuted videos Philip Oakey needs
learning portion
Idaho courage Palmer don't give me something to pathology modify behavior from back on
overtake hiddenville City FL disagree parallel
Vince you of the basin is a common possum terminus attitude from some Bergamo and inject crucial
For be impossible induce a generic problem. See come home. They defeat room by the waterfront a record amount in you a
Routine-use knock knock I did okay for food. Well, how did I say to say they feel differently music?
So how Lucia the lot Jose the Videocon over there a key right for come home you develop a special consequence if I'm unlucky
Oracle robbery we welcome the key a
secondary super cool do confusion a
Absalon fact is action
Camera mobility a decree for absent from color
I noticed the beauty but so sad you could attend the
rotisserie the linear portion survey miss Egidio
possibility a coma telepathic on suburban upon 22 episode now cheaper
Although he just Beckham Sevilla now pushing for the legendary mathematician John von
Neumann was the first to use this phrase to describe this
Lovely day when he said the ever accelerating progress of technology gives the appearance of approaching some essential
Singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs as we know them could not continue
70% of the AI experts
agree that this is at least a moderately important problem and how much to the AI experts think that society should
prioritize AI safety research
well
48% of them think we should prioritize it more than we currently are and only 11% think we should prioritize it less
so there we are AI experts are very unclear about what the future holds but they think the
Catastrophic risks are possible and that this is an important problem. So we need to do more AI safety research
For more infomation >> 50+ Ideas: Flower Garden Border Plants | Garden Ideas - Duration: 8:16.
For more infomation >> Judge Spotlight: Nicole Scherzinger | Season 1 | THE MASKED SINGER - Duration: 0:48.
For more infomation >> First Look: Raising The Bar | Season 2 | THE ORVILLE - Duration: 1:42.
For more infomation >> Judge Spotlight: Robin Thicke | Season 1 | THE MASKED SINGER - Duration: 0:39. 
For more infomation >> Cleaning The Workshop By Adding A Dust Collector To A Mobile Clamp Rack - Duration: 4:23.
For more infomation >> Government Partially Shuts Down Amid Border Wall Impasse | TODAY - Duration: 3:58. 
For more infomation >> New Jersey High School Wrestler Ordered To Cut Dreadlocks In Match | TODAY - Duration: 1:44.
For more infomation >> Como Saber se o Seu Parceiro TE AMA | 10 SINAIS QUE VOCÊ DEVE SABER! - Duration: 2:51. 


For more infomation >> Undercover Surprise: Trolley Stop Cafe | Season 2 Ep. 1 | GORDON RAMSAY'S 24 HOURS TO HELL & BACK - Duration: 1:01.
For more infomation >> Gordon's 24 Resolutions Pt. 1 | Season 2 | GORDON RAMSAY'S 24 HOURS TO HELL & BACK - Duration: 1:12.
For more infomation >> Cooking Demo: Pork Chop Dish | Season 2 Ep. 1 | GORDON RAMSAY'S 24 HOURS TO HELL & BACK - Duration: 4:35. 

Không có nhận xét nào:
Đăng nhận xét