>>> AS MISSILE LAUNCHES GO, WHAT NORTH KOREA DID THIS WEEK WAS
CALLED AN EMBARRASSMENT BY SOME OF THE U.S. EXPERTS.
WHY IT'S TRUE ALL SEVEN MISSILES EVENTUALLY FELL INTO THE SEA OF
JAPAN, THE LAUNCH DID MAKE THE INTENDED SPLASH AROUND THE
GLOBE. >> GOOD MORNING, AND FOR THOSE
OF YOU CELEBRATING, HAPPY EASTER SUNDAY AND ALSO HAPPY PASSOVER
FROM "AM JOY." YOU JUST SAW A NIGHTLY NEWS CLIP
FROM 2006 FROM ANOTHER TIME NORTH KOREA TEST FIRED A
MISSILE, ONLY TO SEE IT FAIL IN A MINUTE.
ON SUNDAY, ONE DAY AFTER NORTH KOREA PUT ITS MILITARY HARDWARE
ON MASSIVE PUBLIC DISPLAY AND AS U.S. OFFICIALS BRACED FOR THE
TEST THAT COULD REACH U.S. SHORES, PYONGYANG'S ATTEMPT LATE
SATURDAY FIZZLED FOUR OR FIVE SECONDS INTO THE TEST.
THE HIGH PROFILE FAILURE CAME HOURS BEFORE VICE PRESIDENT MIKE
PENCE ARRIVED SOUTH OF THE DMZ AND AS A U.S. AIRCRAFT
SUPER CARRIER APPROACHED THE KOREAN PENINSULA IN A SHOW OF
FORCE. FOR 20 YEARS NOW A DEFIANT NORTH
KOREA HAS BEEN TESTING ITS MISSILES, FIRING THEM INTO THE
HEART OF FRENZIED DIPLOMATIC TENSIONS AS THE WORLD HOLDS ITS
COLLECTIVE BREATH. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE NOW, THERE'S
A NEW AND UNPREDICTABLE COMMANDER IN CHIEF IN THE WHITE
HOUSE. JOINING ME NOW, FORMER STATE
DEPARTMENT SPOKESPERSON, FORMER CIA ANALYST ON KOREA ISSUES,
SCHOLAR OF AUTHORITARIAN STATES, TERRORISM EXPERT, AND FORMER FBI
DOUBLE AGENT AND AUTHOR OF "HOW TO CATCH A RUSSIAN SPY."
GREAT PANEL. THANK YOU ALL FOR BEING HERE.
SUMI, I'LL GO TO YOU FIRST ON THIS.
DOES THE FACT THAT NORTH KOREA'S SHOW OF FORCE MISSILE TEST
FAILED, IS THAT A REASON FOR AMERICAN IT IS TO HAVE LESS
ANXIETY OR CONTINUE WORRYING? >> DEFINITELY CONTINUE WORRYING,
BECAUSE THIS TEST FAILED, NOW NORTH KOREANS HAVE TO DO ANOTHER
TEST VERY SOON TO HAVE A SUCCESSFUL TEST.
IT WOULD BE A HUGE LOSS OF FACE DOMESTICALLY AND FOR KIM
JONG-UN'S OWN INTERNAL STANDING, HE HAS TO CONTINUE WITH MORE
PROVOCATIONS. >> WHAT IS IT KIM JONG-UN WANTS
FROM THE WORLD? >> HE WANTS TO BE ACCEPTED.
HE WANTS NORTH KOREA TO BE ACCEPTED INTERNATIONALLY AS A
LEGITIMATE NUCLEAR POWER. THAT'S HIS FINAL END GAME, AND
TO THIS EFFORT HE'S GOING TO TEST PROBABLY AT SOME POINT DOWN
THE ROAD AN ICBM THAT COULD REACH -- INTERCONTINENTAL
BALLISTIC MISSILE -- THAT COULD REACH MAINLAND UNITED STATES.
>> IS THAT EVER GOING TO HAPPEN? >> CERTAINLY NOT WITH THE KIND
OF PERSONALITY AND THE TYPE OF ACTIONS THAT YOU'RE SEEING FROM
NORTH KOREA RIGHT NOW. THE UNITED NATIONS HAS WORKED TO
SIDELINE NORTH KOREA FOR SEVERAL YEARS AND THAT'S REALLY THE BODY
WHERE PEOPLE FOCUS ON WHAT IS THE NORM AND STANDARD OF THE
WORLD. HOWEVER, THE U.N. IS NOT THE
PLACE TO GO WHEN YOU WANT TO ENFORCE SOMETHING, AND THAT'S
GOING TO BE THE CHALLENGE YOU HAVE, THE UNITED STATES AND
WESTERN ALLIED POWERS WHO ARE NOW GOING TO HAVE TO FIGURE OUT
ON THEIR OWN IS THE NEGOTIATING TABLE ENOUGH, HOW FAR ARE WE
GOING TO BE GOING IN ORDER TO STOP THIS NUCLEAR THREAT FROM
SOUTH KOREA AND ULTIMATELY IT'S NOT ABOUT STOPPING THE NUCLEAR
THREAT OF NORTH KOREA, IT'S HELPING SOUTH KOREA IN THE
REGION. SOUTH KOREA AND TAIWAN AT THIS
POINT. UNFORTUNATELY, WE HAVE NOW A
PRESIDENT THAT IS SEEING THIS AS ONLY A PERSONALITY CONFLICT
BETWEEN HIM AND THE NORTH KOREAN PRESIDENT, LEADER OF NORTH
KOREA, BOTH OF WHOM SEEM TO HAVE SOME ERRATIC DECISION MAKING
PROCESSES AND LIKE TO HAVE SHOWS OF POWER, SO THAT'S CERTAINLY
NOT GOING TO HELP IN OUR TRYING TO MANAGE AND KEEP THE SITUATION
CALM. >> LET'S LISTEN TO A MEMBER OF
THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, THIS IS MIKE PENCE, VICE PRESIDENT
WHO'S IN SOUTH KOREA, THIS IS HIM EARLIER TODAY.
>> THIS MORNING'S PROVOCATION FROM THE NORTH IS JUST THE
LATEST REMINDER OF THE RISKS EACH ONE OF YOU FACE EVERY DAY
IN THE DEFENSE OF A FREEDOM OF THE PEOPLE OF SOUTH KOREA AND
THE DEFENSE OF AMERICA IN THIS PART OF THE WORLD.
>> THIS IS A PRESIDENT WHO CAME IN TALKING ABOUT AMERICA FIRST
AND A VERY UNILATERALIST. SUDDENLY HIS VICE PRESIDENT IS
OUT THERE TALKING ABOUT THE DEFENSE OF SOUTH KOREA.
>> YOU'RE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT. WE'VE SEEN INCONSISTENCIES FROM
THIS PRESIDENT FROM THE BEGINNING.
THAT'S THE PROBLEM. WHAT WE KNOW NOW IS THIS, IS
THAT DONALD TRUMP IS A HAMMER, AND HE SEES EVERYTHING AS A
NAIL, AND FROM HIS PERSPECTIVE, EVERYTHING BECOMES PERSONAL.
UNFORTUNATELY, WHAT HE DID WAS HE BOUGHT TO THE PROVOCATION.
HE BOUGHT TO WHAT KIM WAS TRYING TO DO.
HE ACTUALLY RAMPED THIS UP IN A WAY HE DIDN'T NEED TO DO.
HE ACTUALLY MADE THIS FAR MORE DANGEROUS THAN IS NECESSARY, AND
IF WHAT HE COULD HAVE DONE WAS FOCUS MORE ON THE CHINESE AND
DRIVING THE CHINESE TO MOVE THIS ISSUE, BECAUSE THEY ARE THE ONES
WHO HAVE THE ABILITY TO DO IT, THIS WOULD HAVE GONE A MUCH
DIFFERENT DIRECTION. THIS WAS A MASSIVE MISTAKE AND
POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS ONE.
>> TO THAT VERY POINT, YOU HAVE McFARLAND, THE PERSON WHO WAS
INSTALLED AT THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL BY GENERAL
MICHAEL FLYNN, WHO'S NO LONGER WITH THE ADMINISTRATION, BUT WHO
IS NOW BEEN SORT OF TURFED OUT, SENT OFF TO AN AMBASSADORSHIP,
BUT SHE WAS ON FOX NEWS THIS MORNING, THE ONLY SENIOR
ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL WHO WENT WITH DONALD TRUMP TO HIS GOLF
CLUB THIS WEEKEND IN PALM BEACH. THIS WAS ON FOX NEWS THIS
MORNING. >> LIABILITY TO EVERYBODY AND
IT'S A THREAT NOT JUST TO THE UNITED STATES, NOT JUST TO SOUTH
KOREA, NOT JUST TO JAPAN, NOT JUST TO RUSSIA.
ACTUALLY, IT WAS BROUGHT TO CHINA, AS WELL.
AT THIS POINT WE HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.
LIKE YOUR KIDS IN THE BACK OF THE CAR ON A LONG TRIP SAYING
WHEN ARE WE GOING TO GET THERE, WELL, IN THIS CASE, I THINK WE
SHOULD GIVE THE CHINESE PRESIDENT SOME OPPORTUNITIES AND
SOME TIME, AS WELL AS PURSUING THE ECONOMIC AND DIPLOMATIC
PRESSURES THAT WE HAVE AND OUR ALLIES HAVE THAT WE CAN BRING TO
BEAR ON NORTH KOREA. >> DID THAT SOUND LIKE A
COHERENT RESPONSE TO NORTH KOREA TO YOU?
>> NO, LOOK, AS A 9/11 GENERATION GUY AND SOMEONE WHO'S
LEARNED THE LESSONS OF IRAQ AND SEEN WHAT HAPPENED WHEN WE
DEPOSE SADDAM, THE REST OF THE WORLD HAS LEARNED A LESSON ABOUT
THAT ACTION. NORTH KOREA IS A ROGUE STATE.
WHEN YOU START SAYING THINGS LIKE REUNIFYING THE PENINSULA,
WHAT THAT SAYS TO NORTH KOREA IS NOT WE'RE GOING TO KEEP NORTH
KOREA AROUND, IT MEANS BASICALLY EXTENDING SOUTH KOREA.
THAT'S NOT THE RHETORIC THEY WANT TO HEAR.
IT'S THE RHETORIC THAT KIND OF FREAKS THEM OUT AND THEY RESPOND
BY RATCHETING THINGS UP. NORTH KOREA HAS ONE MOVE, AND
THAT IS TO THREATEN. IF THEY GO INTO CONFRONTATION,
IT'S GAME OVER FOR THEM. SO THEY ARE GOING TO GO AS CLOSE
AS THEY CAN TO THE LINE. WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT WHAT
HAPPENED IN NORTH KOREA, THIS WAS ALL STARTED OVER A TWEET,
AND THANK GOODNESS THE NORTH KOREANS DIDN'T DECIDE NOT TO
DETONATE A NUCLEAR TEST AND INSTEAD DID A FAILED MISSILE
LAUNCH, BUT THAT ALREADYLREADY THEY WERE WILLING TO BACK DOWN.
THIS HAS TO BE SOLVED DIPLOMATICALLY.
THE UNITED NATIONS IS NOT THE PLACE, BUT WE HAVE TO UNDERSTAND
ROGUE STATES, YOU'RE NOT GOING TO DEPOSE THEM EASILY.
WE'VE LEARNED THAT LESSON IN IRAQ.
WE SHOULD NOT GO DOWN THAT ROAD, AND I THINK IT IS SHOCKING TO
SEE AN ADMINISTRATION BE SO CAVALIER ABOUT THIS.
>> ONE OF THE THINGS THAT IS MAKING AMERICANS FEEL SO RATTLED
ABOUT THIS AND I DON'T THINK MANY PEOPLE WERE THINKING ABOUT
NORTH KOREA NOVEMBER 8th OF LAST YEAR WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENED,
BUT ARE THINKING ABOUT IT NOW, IS THE RHETORIC ABOUT NORTH
KOREA HAS REALLY GONE FROM ZERO TO DEATH COME ONE AND LET'S
LISTEN TO THE DIRECTOR OF HOMELAND SECURITY, GENERAL JOHN
KELLY, ON "MEET THE PRESS," TALKING ABOUT THE NORTH KOREAN
THREAT TO AMERICANS AND THE UNITED STATES.
>> IN THE CASE OF NORTH KOREA, YOU KNOW, KINETIC THREAT AGAINST
THE UNITED STATES RIGHT NOW, I DON'T THINK, IS LIKELY, BUT
CERTAINLY A CYBER THREAT. SO WE WOULD RAISE VARIOUS THREAT
LEVELS IN THE EVENT THAT SOMETHING HAPPENED.
>> ARE WE IN A SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE BOTH OF THESE REGIMES,
NORTH KOREAN REGIME, AS WELL AS THE UNITED STATES, SORT OF
RATCHETING UP THE THREAT,REAT, THEY ARE NOT ACTUALLY
THREATENING TO DO ANYTHING. JOHN KELLY SAYING THERE'S NO
THREAT OF IMMINENT WAR, BUT THERE DEFINITELY IS A RHETORICAL
RAMPING UP OF THIS THREAT LEVEL. >> YEAH, AND ONE OF THE KEY
PROBLEMS IS ET RHETORIC ON NORTH KOREA FROM THE U.S. SIDE IS VERY
INCONSISTENT. IN MARCH TILLERSON ANNOUNCED
DIPLOMACY WITH NORTH KOREA FAILED.
THEY BEGAN BRINGING OUT THE IDEA OF THE PREEMPTIVE STRIKE ON
NORTH KOREA. TRUMP STARTED BAITING NORTH
KOREA WITH TWEETS. NORTH KOREA IS NOT GOING TO SEE
THOSE TWEETS AND SAY, AS SOME AMERICAN COMMENTATORS SAID, THIS
IS A DISTRACTION OR TRUMP IS TRYING TO GET OUT OF A DOMESTIC
CRISIS OR THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATION.
THEY ARE GOING TO SEE THAT AS AN AGGRESSIVE MOVE AND SIMILARLY
TRUMP IS SO UNSOPHISTICATED, HAS NO POLITICAL STRATEGY BEYOND A
FETISH FOR AGGRESSION, HE'LL SEE THINGS NORTH KOREA HAS BEEN
DOING FOR YEARS, LIKE TESTING VARIOUS MILITARY DEVICES, AS A
DIRECT PROVOCATION AGAINST THE UNITED STATES AND HE WILL
RATCHET UP THE RHETORIC SIMILARLY AND CALL FOR STRIKES
ON NORTH KOREA AND WHAT NOT. AND THIS IS VERY DANGEROUS,
BECAUSE THESE ARE T TWO NUCLEAR POWERS, AND TRUMP HAS BEEN
OBSESSED WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS SINCE AT LEAST 1984 WHERE HE
PROCLAIMED HE KNOWS EVERYTHING HE NEEDS TO KNOW ABOUT THEM.
DURING THE ELECTION HE SAID IF WE HAVE NUKES, WHY NOT USE THEM,
WHICH IS IN DIRECT CONTRADICTION TO EVERY NUCLEAR POLICY WE HAVE
HAD AND EVERY COUNTRY HAS HAD. HE'S ERRATIC AND I UNFORTUNATELY
THINK THAT, YOU KNOW, WE SHOULD BE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHERE THIS
IS GOING IN TERMS OF CONFRONTATION BETWEEN THESE TWO
REGIMES. >> SUMI, IS IT ACCURATE TO SAY
THE NORTH KOREANS TAKE EVERYTHING DONALD TRUMP SAYS AS
A VERY SERIOUS THREAT, EVEN IF IT'S JUST A TWEET?
>> ABSOLUTELY. NORTH KOREA IS ALREADY A VERY
PARANOID STATE AND KIM JONG-UN IS A PARANOID MAN.
HE RECENTLY KILLED HIS BROTHER USING A CHEMICAL WEAPON IN A
MAJOR INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. NORTH KOREA IS LIKELY TO TAKE
THIS THREAT VERY, VERY SERIOUSLY.
>> JACK RICE, IS THERE CONFIDENCE IN THE INTELLIGENCE
COMMUNITY ON THE U.S. SIDE DONALD TRUMP KNOWS WHAT TO DO IN
RESPONSE? >> NO.
THAT'S THE PROBLEM WE'RE SEEING ON THE SBEMGS SIDE, THEY DON'T
KNOW EXACTLY WHAT IT IS WE'RE DOING.
IF WE LISTEN TO THE PANEL AS A WHOLE, WE'RE FINDING HERE THE
INCREDIBLE INCONSISTENCIES COMING FROM TILLERSON, COMING
FROM PENCE, COMING FROM HIS NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISERS, AND
THEN WHAT YOU HAVE IS ALL OF A SUDDEN HIM AT 3:00 IN THE
MORNING TWEETING TO THE NORTH KOREANS.
SO WHEN YOU HAVE THAT HAPPENING, YOU CONTEMPLATE THE
RAMIFICATIONS OF THIS. MY FEAR IS THAT HE'S NEVER
CONTEMPLATED THE RAMIFICATIONS. HE JUST KNOWS HOW TO POUND HIS
CHEST. THE PROBLEM IS, BRUTE FORCE DOES
NOT WORK BY ITSELF AND IN THIS CIRCUMSTANCE IT MAKES IT FAR,
FAR WORSE. >> YEAH.
WELL, I DON'T THINK WE'VE LOWERED ANYBODY'S ANXIETY LEVELS
THIS MORNING. STAY RIGHT THERE.
REPRESENTATIVE BARBARA LEE HAS A
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