they're gonna be coming on July 25th to negotiate with us we said if we don't
negotiate something fair then we have tremendous retribution which we don't
want to use but we have tremendous powers you have to including cars that
was President Trump Wednesday promising tremendous retribution if his meeting
with the European Union officials next week doesn't result in what he considers
fairer trade deals the president is scheduled to sit down Wednesday with
European Commission President jean-claude Juncker amid administration
threats to slap tariffs on imported cars and auto parts but resistance to the
tariffs is growing with a coalition of foreign and domestic auto companies
dealers and auto part makers asking the president not to move forward with the
penalties and a bipartisan group of nearly 150 lawmakers urging Commerce
Secretary Wilbur Ross to back away from the tariffs we're back with Bill McGurn
Mary Kissel and Jason Reilly so bill there's a school of thought that says
has said for some time the president trade threats are really just a
negotiating ploy that he'll back away at the end and it won't go ahead I'm
increasingly of the belief that he really wants this kind of a tariff war
and he really wants to stick it to German automobiles what do you think I
hope not I mean the problem with trade wars is there are a lot of innocent
bystanders that get hurt and you don't always know those costs and I think what
you see especially with the European Union reaction is when you when you make
these threats they're more than willing to come back and do the same thing to us
you know there's not a lot of quiet players the Chinese would probably
prefer to work out a deal quietly with us but you get into it with the European
Union it's like a game of chicken with the truck bearing down on you well and
Jason the jerk the Germans in particular seemed to be his target he has an
obsession I would say I don't think that's too strong a word
with German cars and I I mean it looks like it sounds to me like he's
determined to do it what do you think I think he is determined to do it you have
to take him at his word here he is his he campaigned on this and it's something
he's determined to follow through on for better or worse mostly for worse I think
particularly in states that helped elect him Paul and that's one of the things
that's hard to to figure out here whether it's cars or aluminum or foreign
products you have companies like Alcoa aluminum maker their shares are tumbling
because they import from Canada that's gotten more expensive alcohol is based
in Pittsburgh Trump won Pennsylvania farmer is traveling over to China trying
to preserve deals there that have been harmed due to that the Chinese trade war
Trump won Iowa is this what those voters signed up for colo is a company that was
supposed to the american aluminum maker it's the kind of company that Trump said
the tariffs would help and now in the earnings call this week you have them
saying the tariffs are hurting their earnings are down 15% or so so I guess
and you see this marshalling mhairi of the domestic companies and the foreign
automakers who invest here and everybody really except for the United Auto
Workers which has I would say issued tepid support for the tariffs but
everybody else against it can Trump still move ahead and in the face of that
opposition well I think it depends on what happens to the stock market Paul
the one indicator that he watches very closely look BMWs largest plant in the
world is in Spartanburg South Carolina a district that Trump won with more than
60% now we haven't seen the effects of these tariffs on the markets but I think
when that happens Trump is going to wake up now on the European side my question
is do the Europeans get it yet because they didn't believe that Trump would
pull out of the Paris climate change agreement they didn't believe he was
gonna pull out into Iran do you know they didn't believe he was going to put
tariffs on so if I were sitting in Brussels I would be coming to Washington
with something to offer trunk whether it's a loosening of I don't know
agricultural terror I think that is not going to work ready
to deal card tariffs it's got to be it's gonna got to be on automobiles and it's
got to be at a minimum it would seem to me essentially the same rate on tariffs
and I'm not sure even that it's gonna work because the Germans are gonna say
you have a 20 percent tariff on trucks I don't know about that Paul I think I
think if the Europeans came with a deal to Trump and they could both stand up
and proclaim victory and walk I think my point is it has to be on can't be farm
products one other point I think is worth making is that other countries
seem willing to move on and make deals without us
Japan and the EU have gotten together to cut deals without the u.s. we lose out
economically in cases like that but we also lose out in terms of influence in
the region so there's much more at stake here than simply uh cars and tariffs
bill what about the danger here that this now becomes also a currency war the
president lashed out this week at the falling yuan and the falling euro
because of the strong dollar I don't think he understands that one of the
reasons a dollar is so strong is because so much foreign capital coming here
because of the tax reform and the deregulation in fact it's a good thing
it's a vote of confidence in his policies right got to know your friends
are look I think Mary makes a good point when she pointed out about the BMW
plants over here I mean today what is an American car or what it's such a
multi-faceted thing it reminds me for many years for about 20 years
there was a dumping suit my brother typewriter Japanese company building
typewriters in America against smith-corona an American company
building typewriters in Asia and it just ended and it's just it's just ridiculous
I shall have my Olivetti oh I have you know
it's a sucker for those foreigners man exactly very stylish a portable
typewriter I took on the road in Asia alright still ahead Google is slapped
with a record fine as the European Union the kid is the tech giant of antitrust
violations what it means for Google and its competitors when we come back
the European Union this week slapped Google with a record five billion dollar
fine accusing the tech giant of violating antitrust laws by requiring
that its Chrome browser and search engine be automatically installed on
phones that use its Android operating system
Andy Kessler writes the inside view column for The Wall Street Journal in
these founder of the Silicon Valley hedge fund velocity capital Andy great
to see you thanks for coming in so what are you making that you use fine this
week and it's charges against Google well the fine itself is irrelevant right
you look at the numbers eight hundred and thirty billion dollar market cap 100
billion in cash thirteen billion in profits last year so that's not the pump
it's the it's the concept of they're annoyed about eleven apps that they
install including maps and search and assistant and and trying to say that
that's anti-competitive but Google Android it's a platform it's a platform
for others to compete on lift versus uber and Spotify versus Pandora it's
this wonderful competitive environment and they compete against Apple so you
know bureaucrats have to bureaucrats and so they had to do something but what
about they say look you know when they go to a handset maker and they say if
you want to use Android you've got to put these our apps on Google Maps
YouTube and pride first sure that's favoritism to Google well yes but you
get the operating system for free rather than turning billions of dollars to
develop your own yeah and Samsung for example puts their own apps on there and
users can hit delete and put their own apps up it's just like the PC business
and the browser wars in a sense it became obsolete almost at the time that
that Microsoft got their hands slapped so they're really you think that they're
looking through the rear view mirror here and technology will somehow make
all of this irrelevant yeah I mean phones have already peaked right I mean
we're starting to look at what the next platform might be but my my issue is if
you're Google what do you do I mean they're going to appeal or they have
appeal that's fine but you know you can't let the European Commission of
competition get away with so if I was Google I would do the following there's
a billion plus Android phones that ship every year got a figure at
least 100 million probably multiple hundred men ship into Europe so you can
shut them off but then you're hurting yourself right so instead what I would
do is I would say okay let's create an activation fee 50 dollars 50 euros and
not payable to Google but payable to the European Union you have to write a check
or go to them so the individual user of the Android phone would have to file the
pay the fee yes and don't even let him do it electronically make him go to a
bank or go postal this thing would blow over in a week
there would be such an uproar that it would never happen and people they would
be you not good exactly are you sure yes I mean it's just like in tariffs it's
the same thing if there's a tariff on on my imported Mercedes Benz if I had to
pay that money to the US government rather than to the dealer go what do you
mean I have to pay let me ask you another issue about Google it's market
cap almost 900 million it's astonishing but is there a problem in your mind from
antitrust point of view and the way they use algorithms just steer users to
certain kinds of content for example of their content and advertisers that they
want a Stewart - well sure that was the other European fine they paid for
steering people towards their shopping site and so you know it's better to have
transparency is is to have the algorithms so transparent that if you
wanted to have your ad placed first maybe you'd pay more it's always going
to be an issue with platforms but the more visibility there is and you don't
see advertisers complain see bureaucrats complain but you don't see advertiser
complaint because they can get to users I mean that's the nice thing about
Google is you know the effectiveness of your ad you run it doesn't work you
don't run it again and you run with other keywords alright so you know I
want to ask you as a market analyst the big fan companies the Facebook Google
Netflix and Apple have dominated the market but you
ordered an intriguing column this week saying that maybe the seeds of their
decline are already planted explain what you meant well on Wall Street it's easy
to buy a stock you know I'm gonna buy the stock it's gonna be the next
greatest thing but no one knows when to sell and so I think you need an exit
strategy you know it's like the day you buy you can figure out what is going to
go wrong eventually you know look at Netflix it blew up this week right at
the subscriber numbers were a million shy and they took the stock down when I
look at the other ones some of them are a little more obvious than others I mean
apples seeds of destruction are what we just talked about is the the phone
market is kind of peaked peaking there radial tires everyone has one they don't
wear out similarly Facebook they have a problem
in that you know they're at two point something billion users it doubled in
five years I don't think it's gonna double again they're not allowed in
China Russia has competition for for Facebook so what happens as that growth
rate kind of slows investors get a little nervous and start running for the
hills and but and and and and that's what you got to look for as an investor
when's the turn you you look for it the day you invest and then you keep an eye
on that say what are the signs that I'm looking for because stocks go up in
euphoria right you know Google Amazon every day the stock goes up so what is
going to go wrong so that you can be ahead of everyone else read Andy's
column to tell you when to do that by the way thanks for being here Andy we
have to take one more break when we come back hits and misses of the week
you
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