Youtube daily Jan 29 2019

Chris Hill: eBay is going to report their fourth quarter earnings next week.

But yesterday, shares of eBay were up 6% on, well, activist investors looking to make some changes.

And it's not just one, it's two.

Yesterday, the catalyst was Elliott Management coming out with this letter.

Elliott Management owns about 4% of eBay.

They came out with this letter saying, "Hey, we'd like to see some changes.

Specifically, here are the changes we'd like to see." We'll get to those in a second.

Starboard Value, probably a better-known name than Elliott Management -- Starboard Value

also has a stake, they revealed that recently -- they're going to come out with their own

letter at some point soon.

Pretty interesting timing, planting this flag a week before eBay reports earnings,

and putting the CEO on notice.

But I'm curious what you thought specifically of the headline changes that Elliott is agitating for --

spinning off the StubHub business and the Classifieds business.

Aaron Bush: I'm not surprised to see this happening. I think it could make sense to some degree.

What eBay has done incredibly well over the past many years is, they've done a good job

pinpointing and buying businesses that are relevant and can scale.

If you think about buying PayPal, buying StubHub, those turned out to have some pretty fantastic

returns for eBay shareholders. That's great.

The problem is that eBay's core marketplace platform isn't the best business

to really connect to all of this other stuff.

It's hard to build a larger encompassing business that has synergies and is all-inclusive.

We saw that with PayPal. It was obvious, PayPal isn't a marketplace.

We're starting to see that now. StubHub is a marketplace.

The Classifieds business is a marketplace.

But is eBay really the best connection for those companies to exist?

I think for the Classifieds business, maybe it is.

It's pretty similar to what eBay does, people buying and selling goods and services.

It's mainly international, so there could be something there.

That doesn't make as much sense to me. But on the StubHub side, absolutely.

I can totally see StubHub being a separate business, and being separate, being able to

unlock value, make deals that they couldn't have otherwise.

Honestly, a company like StubHub could do well independently, but it wouldn't surprise

me if it got spun out and then was acquired by someone like Amazon or Sirius XM, or even

connected to Spotify in some way to help those companies build a more complete music experience,

adding live to just streaming.

Hill: You and I were talking before we started taping about the customer experience when

you're looking to buy tickets, whether it's to a game or a concert.

Essentially, once you've made the decision, "I'm going to go to this thing,"

then it's all about, "Where am I going to sit?"

And that sort of thing.

By the time you get to buy the tickets, that's when it clicks in, like, "Oh, my god,

how much in fees am I being charged here?"

But at that point, you're like, "OK, alright, I'm just going to buy this because I want

to go to this thing."

Bush: Yeah, it's not the friendliest for the consumer.

Hill: [laughs] No!

Bush: But it's a pretty great business to be invested in.

It tends to generate lots of cash, which can then be either just delivered straight back

to investors in dividends or share repurchases, or used like we see in Live Nation,

which owns Ticketmaster, they continue to make lots of new deals that strengthen their ecosystem.

I could totally see someone wanting StubHub for that great business and being able to

use it to strengthen a music ecosystem. And that's not going to be eBay.

It makes no sense why that would be eBay.

So, I can totally buy why they'd want to spin out StubHub.

That would be about a $4 billion business.

Hill: I think back to a few weeks ago, when we were here in the studio, we were doing

Motley Fool Money, first episode of 2019, sort of our preview of the year.

One of the things we talked about was CEOs to watch, whether they are on the hot seat

or just set up for an interesting year. None of us mentioned Devin Wenig, the CEO at eBay.

But I think the next couple of weeks are going to be really interesting for him.

He took over as CEO of eBay back in July of 2015 when the PayPal spin-off occurred.

You think back to then, shares of eBay were around $26 a share.

Today, they're around $33.

And that alone isn't enough to necessarily get a CEO fired, but I think the combination

of the attention being paid because of the activist investors coming in, being very specific

about unlocking value, I really think this conference call next week is going to be interesting.

Among other things, they're coming out of the holiday quarter.

And I saw a lot of eBay commercials on television.

And personally, as a longtime shareholder of eBay, I'm curious to see, not just what

they put up in terms of revenue and profits, but what was their marketing spend?

What did that look like?

It wouldn't surprise me at all if they came out next week and it was, "Oh, yeah, we ended

up shooting for the moon in terms of trying to bring in revenue, and because of that,

we spent a ton more on advertising than we normally do."

Bush: Right. I think it'll be interesting to see how open-minded he is to changes being made.

If he is stubborn... the previous CEO was also stubborn when it came to spinning off PayPal,

and that didn't exactly work out.

I think what he should do is be open-minded and recognize that some of these businesses

could have value elsewhere. His legacy could come from how great of a dealmaker he is.

Even if you think about, you spin out StubHub, maybe you spin off the Classifieds, that leaves

a much smaller eBay. And what do you do with that?

Does that become acquired? Do you make other partnerships with that?

I think that if the snowball starts rolling, it'll start accelerating.

Maybe nothing happens, but if something even small happens, it could trigger other things afterwards.

Those are legacy-making decisions on his part.

For more infomation >> Ahead of Earnings, eBay is Dealing with Activist Investor Elliott Management - Duration: 6:48.

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Why IBM Isn't a Good Stock to Buy - Duration: 4:54.

Chris Hill: Let's start with big blue.

IBM's fourth quarter profit and revenue came in higher than expected.

The guidance for 2019, I think, is what is driving the stock. Shares of IBM up 8%.

Aaron Bush: I mean, I wouldn't get too optimistic just looking at the guidance.

The company itself continues to trudge along.

Like we say pretty much every quarter, IBM's best days are way, way behind it.

This particular quarter was pretty much just more of the same.

Revenue fell a small amount, but revenue growth for the full year is essentially flat.

In any normal context, you'd say, "That sucks."

But looking at IBM and given what they've been through over the last several years,

just bleeding revenue, that's progress.

It's better than it used to be mainly because some of their growing businesses, like AI,

analytics, application management, are now a larger percentage of revenue than they used to be.

The growth from those businesses is driving larger changes in the business.

But it's still not that good, as other core parts of the business are still in decline.

Although IBM has relationships with many major enterprises out there, there's no way on its

own that it can compete against companies like AWS, Azure when it comes to the cloud.

The core of IBM, in my mind, is still entirely uninspiring.

Hill: Let me push back in this regard.

The obituary for IBM has been written a couple of times in the last 20 years.

You can go back to the late 80s, early 90s, where people were saying, from an investing

standpoint, things not too different from what you're saying right now.

Essentially, best days are behind it.

And you can look at a chart of IBM, there were stretches of time where this was a market-beating stock.

Mid-90s to the early 2000s, late 2008 for the next five years.

It was kind of surprising, the way that they were performing.

My question is, even though they've got all this competition -- particularly, as you mentioned,

against the likes of AWS and Azure -- would it surprise you if, the next five years,

this was a market-beating stock?

Bush: It would surprise me if it were a market-beating stock.

The core of IBM is still in a tough spot.

I think the businesses that are doing well are going to be a larger percentage of revenue.

But when you have these other massive businesses that are a part of IBM still in decline, coming

to beat the market and beating other companies that don't have any of that baggage, that's tough.

When you look at IBM's earnings, though, it's smart not to write an obituary mainly because

we can't forget that their upcoming acquisition of Red Hat is still in the works and will

close later this year. IBM is about a $120 billion business now.

They're spending $34 billion to acquire Red Hat. That's the largest software acquisition ever.

That should accelerate their efforts to become more modern in the cloud market.

I think that that deal is interesting.

Red Hat's products are pretty much entirely open source, I think, and the business model

there builds around support and professional services, which IBM has lots of experience in.

It should help them accelerate their expertise in hybrid IT, helping companies work across

multiple public clouds, private clouds, legacy infrastructure.

Red Hat has other more technical products like Kubernetes, which helps what's known

as containerized applications, which means developers don't have to run a virtual machine

for every single application that they're working with.

That's super technical, but that's a big, growing field that should help modernize IBM's business.

That said, it's massive. It's the most obvious Hail Mary that I've seen in tech, I think.

And it makes sense why IBM would do it. They need something like this.

But I don't know how smooth it will go. I bet some of Red Hat's people will jump ship.

There's going to be culture clash.

And even though IBM will probably want to do lots of cross-sells, I don't know if all

of Red Hat's customers will want to buy lots of other IBM services.

I think it'll be fascinating how it goes down.

Definitely not writing an obituary here, but I think that we still can find better stocks than IBM.

For more infomation >> Why IBM Isn't a Good Stock to Buy - Duration: 4:54.

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