>> STEVE KORNACKI, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR JOINING US.
APPRECIATE IT. >>> JOINING US NOW STEVE
SCHMIDT, NBC POLITICAL ANALYST. ALSO, JASON JOHNSON, EDITOR AT
THE ROOT.COM. STEVE SCHMIDT, THERE ARE TWO
COMPARISONS BEING MADE HERE ON OSSOFF'S VOTE.
HIS VOTE IS COMPARED TO HILLARY CLINTON'S VOTE WHICH IS A CHOICE
FOR PRESIDENT. NOT A HOUSE MEMBER.
AND THE VOTE IS BEING COMPARED TO THE LAST CONGRESSIONAL RACE
IN THAT DISTRICT. WHICH ONE OF THOSE COMPARISONS
IS THE ONE THAT REPUBLICANS SHOULD BE LOOKING AT TONIGHT TO
CONTEMPLATE THEIR STRENGTH IN THE CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION IN
2018? >> LOOK, LAWRENCE WITHIN IF
YOU'RE A HOUSE CAMPAIGN STRATEGIST I THINK YOU ARE
SITTING THERE TONIGHT GOING, THANK GOD WE PULLED IT OUT.
JUST BECAUSE THE SEAWALL HELD. IT DOESN'T MEANT STORM WASN'T
FIERCE AND THE WAVES WEREN'T LARGE.
THIS IS AN OVERWHELMINGLY REPUBLICAN DISTRICT.
MITT ROMNEY GETTING 66% OF THE VOTE.
DONALD TRUMP COMING DOWN TO 4 THE%.
TOM PRICE GETTING ELECTED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 68% TO 61%.
AND IN HIS ELECTIONS. SO THIS IS AN OMINOUS WIN FOR
REPUBLICANS. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE $23 MILLION
RAISED BY GRASS ROOTS DONORS, WHERE YOU SEE THAT ENERGY,
DEMOCRATS WERE TAPPING ON THE GLASS IN THIS OVERWHELMINGLY
REPUBLICAN DISTRICT. WHEN YOU LOOK AT HOW DEMOCRATS
GET INTO THE MAJORITY, YOU HAVE A 24-SEAT MAJORITY, 23 SEATS
THAT SECRETARY CLINTON CARRIED THAT ARE REPRESENTED BY A
REPUBLICAN. AND I THINK WHAT YOU'RE SEEING
IS THE NEW BATTLE GROUND OF AMERICAN POLITICS ARE THESE
SUBURBS WHERE AFFLUENT WHITE COLLEGE-EDUCATED REPUBLICAN
VOTERS WHO ARE UNCOMFORTABLE WITH DONALD TRUMP, I THINK ARE
LIKELY TO BE SWING VOTERS IN 18, IN 2020 AS REPUBLICAN PARTIES
GOTTEN MORE RED, BECOMES MORE RURAL AS DEMOCRATIC PARTIES
BECOME MORE BLUE, IT'S BECOME MORE URBAN.
AND THAT'S LEFT THE SUBURBS AS A BATTLEFIELD.
I THINK WE SAW ONE OF THE EARLY BATTLES OF IT PLAYING OUT IN
THIS RACE WHICH WAS SURPRISINGLY CLOSE.
>> JASON JOHN SOP, IF YOU'RE A REPUBLICAN IN THE HOUSE OF
REPRESENTATIVES AND YOU WON YOUR SEAT WITH LESS THAN 20% OF THE
VOTE, WHAT DO YOU FEEL LIKE TONIGHT?
>> YOU'RE NOT ONLY ENCOURAGED, YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT KAREN HANDEL
AND THINK LIKE THEY BASICALLY SPENT $23 MILLION -- SPENDING
LIKE TOM BRADY'S SALARY TO KEEP A SEAT THAT HAD BEEN IN
REPUBLICAN HANDS FOR 20 YEARS. THAT'S NOT SOMETHING THAT YOU
WANT TO HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IF YOU'RE A REPUBLICAN NEXT YEAR
HEADING INTO 2018. KNOWING THAT THE PUBLIC IS GOING
TO BE MORE ENERGIZED, MORE EXCITED AND POSSIBLY UNHAPPY
ABOUT THE HEALTH CARE BILL. LOOK, AT END OF THE DAY, AND I
AGREE WITH STEVE IN THIS REGARD, THIS IS A PLUS 9% REGISTRATION
DISTRICT FOR THE REPUBLICANS. THEY SHOULD HAVE WON THIS.
THE FACT IT IS EVEN CLOSE AND THE FACT THIS MUCH MONEY HAD TO
BE SPENT, I DON'T THINK ANY REPUBLICAN IS RIGHT NOW BECAUSE
MOST CAN'T RAISE $23 MILLION TO STOP SOMEONE CHALLENGING.
>> STEVE SCHMIDT, WE SAW IN SOUTH CAROLINA, SURPRISINGLY
CLOSE RACE IN THAT SPECIAL ELECTION THAT PEOPLE DO NOT HAVE
THEIR EYE ON EXPECTING IT TO BE THAT CLOSE.
>> IF YOU GO BACK TO 1993, LAWRENCE, WHEN BILL CLINTON WAS
PRETTY UNPOPULAR IN THE FIRST TERM, YOU HAD TWO SPECIAL
ELECTIONS THAT DROPPED INTO THE REPUBLICAN COLUMN OUT ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, THE KENTUCKY ONE, KENTUCKY TWO DISTRICTS.
THAT SHOWED US SOMETHING WAS BREWING FOR 1994.
I THINK WHEN YOU LOOK RIGHT NOW YOU CONSIDER THE FACT THAT THE
INCUMBENT PRESIDENT'S PARTY ONLY PICKED UP SEATS IN THE FIRST MID
TERM FROM THREE TIMES IN THE LAST 118 YEARS.
YOU LOOK AT DISPERSION OF THOSE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS THAT
HILLARY CLINTON CARRIED, REPRESENTED BAY REPUBLICAN.
YOU CONSIDER THE PRESIDENT'S APPROVAL NUMBERS IN MID 30s.
HEALTH CARE, LACK OF AN ABILITY BY THIS REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP TO
MOVE AN AGENDA FORWARD. THERE ARE A LOT OF OMINOUS WINS
OUT THERE, IF YOU'RE A COMPETITIVE MEMBER OF CONGRESS.
REMEMBER MOST MEMBERS OF CONGRESS ARE AS LIKELY TO LOSE
THEIR SEAT AS A MEMBER OF THE OLD SOVIET BUREAU.
FOR THAT SPECIAL CATEGORY, IN COMPETITIVE RACES, PROBABLY HAVE
A NAUSEOUS FEELING WATCHING THIS GEORGIA 6 RACE.
>> WHAT HAPPENS IN THE GEORGIA 6 DISTRICT NEXT YEAR IN THE 2018
ELECTION? WILL JOHN OSSOFF TRY TO TRUMP
BACK IN AND TRY TO WIN THIS RACE?
>> NO ONE WILL ADMIT THAT NOW BUT THAT'S WHAT WILL HAPPEN.
THEY ARE JUST GOING TO KEEP FOCUSSING ON KAREN HANDEL.
THIS IS AN IMPORTANT THING AND I THINK THIS IS KEY.
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BEING ON THE OUTSIDE AND BEING HERE ON THE
GROUND AND TALKING TO FOLKS WHO ARE CANVASSING.
THERE WASN'T ACTUALLY A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF ENTHUSIASM
FOR KAREN HANDEL OR JON OSSOFF. THIS IS A REFERENDUM ON TRUMP IN
A DISTRICT THAT WOULD STILL MORE OR LESS VOTE FOR HIM.
AS KAREN HANDEL GETS SADDLED WITH SOME POLICY ISSUES THAT
MADE TRUMP UNPOPULAR I THINK SHE WILL BE A NUMBER ONE TARGET FOR
OSSOFF NEXT YEAR. HASN'T FALLEN OFF THE MAP.
PEOPLE WILL STAY ENTHUSIASTIC. I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE
HAVE A REMATCH NEXT YEAR AND THE RESULT MAY TURN OUT DIFFERENT.
>> IN THE 2018 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS, REPUBLICANS IN
CONGRESS ARE EITHER GOING TO BE DEFENDING A BILL THAT THEY VOTED
FOR ON HEALTH CARE THAT HAS BEEN SIGN NEED LAW OR THEY ARE GOING
TO BE DEFENDING TO SOME CONSTITUENTS THEIR FAILURE TO
GET A BILL ON HEALTH CARE SIGNED INTO LAW.
>> YEAH, ULTIMATELY IT'S DAMMED IF YOU DO, DAMMED IF YOU DON'T.
NO ONE HAS ANY IDEA WHAT'S IN IT, WHAT IT COST, HOW MANY
PEOPLE LOSE INSURANCE, ITS IMPACT.
WHETHER YOU THINK OBAMA CARE IS A GOOD IDEA OR BAD IDEA, SHOULD
IT BE REPEALED OR NOT, THE METHOD THEY ARE FOLLOWING, NO
PUBLIC HEARINGS, NO PUBLIC VETTING, NO ABILITY FOR PEOPLE
AFFECTED FWI TO WEIGH IN. IT IS NOT GOING TO HAVE A GOOD
OUTCOME AND ALREADY THE HOUSE BILL HAS A 17% APPROVAL LEVEL
OUT ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHEN YOU LOOK AT AGENDA AND THE
DEGREE TO WHICH IT STUCK, YOU LOOK AT HOW ENERGIZED DEMOCRATS
ARE AT SOME OF THESE DISTRICTS. REPUBLICANS ARE GOING TO HAVE
THEIR WORK CUT OUT FOR THEM IN 2018.
THEY ARE HEADING INTO A BIG HEAD WIND AND WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT
PROBLEM ANSWERING PRETTY SIMPLE QUESTION WHICH IS, YOU KNOW,
FIRST CHECK WE GET AT THE POLLS OF HOW'S DONALD TRUMP DOING,
WHAT ARE THEY GOING TO SAY WHEN PEOPLE ASK THE QUESTION, DO YOU
THINK HE'S DOING A GOOD JOB AS PRESIDENT.
THAT'S TOUGH FOR REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES IN THESE MARGINAL
DISTRICTS TO ANSWER IN WAY THAT DOESN'T MAKE THEM LOOK LIKE
FOOLS OR TURN OFF TRUMP SUPPORTERS.
THEY HAVE DIFFICULT HOURS I SUSPECT AS WE MOVE INTO THIS '18
CYCLE. >> LET'S LOOK AT WHAT WALL RYAN
WILL BE FACING. THIS IS RANDY BRYCE WHO
ANNOUNCED HE WON'T RUN AS DEMOCRAT AGAINST PAUL RYAN.
SPEAKERS SEAT IS SUPPOSED TO BE A SAFE SEAT.
BUT LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT HOW RANDY BRYCE WANT TO RUN AGAINST
PAUL RYAN. >> PAUL RYE ON, COME UP AND SAY
A FEW WORDS. CONGRATULATIONS ON A JOB WELL
DONE. >> THIS IS REPEALING AND
REPLACING OBAMACARE.
EVERYBODY DOESN'T GET WHAT THEY WANT.
>> IT'S A VERY PAINFUL CONDITION.
IT'S LIKE HOT KNIVES GOING THROUGH.
AND YOU CAN'T TALK. YOU CAN'T SWALLOW.
IT'S TERRIBLE. I'M GOING TO CRY.
I'M ON 20 DRUGS AND IF I DON'T TAKE THE ONE THAT COSTS
THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS, I DON'T KNOW WHAT WOULD HAPPEN.
>> I'M THE BEST PERSON TO REPRESENT THIS DISTRICT BECAUSE
I'M A WORKING PERSON. IF SOMEBODY FALLS BEHIND AND
WE'RE SO MUCH STRONGER, IF WE CARRY THEM WITH US, THAT'S THE
WAY I WAS RAISED. YOU LOOK OUT FOR EACH OTHER.
I THINK IT'S TIME. LET'S TRADE PLACEES.
PAUL RYAN, YOU CAN COME WORK THE IRON AND I'LL GO TO D.C.
>> JASON JOHNSON, LOOKS LIKE EVERY REPUBLICAN MIGHT HAVE A
SERIOUS DEMOCRATIC CHALLENGER. >> YEAH, YEAH.
THIS IS A KIN TO WHEN REPUBLICANS WERE CHASING AFTER
DASCHLE A COUPLE YEARS AGO. YOU DON'T USUALLY SEE SERIOUS
CHALLENGERS AGAINST PARTY LEADERSHIP.
BUT THIS IS A BIG POLITICAL SCIENCE ISSUE THAT I THINK AGAIN
IS THE BIG QUESTION THAT REPUBLICANS HAVE TO LOOK AT.
THE ENTHUSIASM ON THE SIDE OF DEMOCRATS ATTRACTING BETTER
CANDIDATES. AND BETTER CANDIDATES ARE
FORCING P TOMORROW HAVE TO DEFEND A FLANK THAT THEY
COULDN'T HAVE TO DO BEFORE. I THINK WE WILL SEE, I BET YOU
LATER ON THIS SUMMER, YOU WILL SEE MORE AND MORE REPUBLICANS
DECIDE. I MAY RETIRE.
I DON'T WANT IT SPEND THE NEXT 18 MONTHS RAISING $1.5 MILLION
TO PROTECT MYSELF. WHEN THIS IS IN PAUL RYAN'S
BACKYARD, IT IS A SHOT IN THE ARM TO DEFEND ANYONE
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