On this episode of China Uncensored,
two Chinas for the price of one!
Or,
one China for the price of two.
I'm not really sure how this works.
Hi, welcome back to China Uncensored,
I'm your host Chris Chappell.
Remember how it felt during gym class
when they were picking kids for the team
and you were the one no one wanted?
Obviously I can't relate to that because I'm extremely athletic.
But that's essentially what happened to Taiwan.
When the world had to pick their favorite China—
the Communist Party of China in the Mainland
or the Republic of China in Taiwan,
the world chose the Communist Party to have diplomatic relations with.
Which is strange considering the shape the two leaders were in.
But anyway, very few countries picked Taiwan
to be on their diplomacy team.
And now, even though for all intents and purposes
Taiwan is a separate country,
only a small handful of countries acknowledges it.
And so, since the Communist Party of China
was the cool kid that got picked, it's been bullying Taiwan.
By pointing missiles at it and threatening to invade.
So I sat down with Ian East, a research fellow at Project 2049,
to discuss the Communist Party's plans to invade Taiwan.
Thank you for joining us today, Ian.
Chris, it's a pleasure to be here.
All right, so the Chinese Communist Party
says Taiwan is a province of China.
The Chinese Communist Party also says
it plans to invade Taiwan by 2020.
My question is how can China invade itself?
That's a very good question.
It's not at all clear that China is capable of invading itself,
nor is it clear that Taiwan is actually part of
the People's Republic of China.
How dare you.
It's sad but true that Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party
have this narrative as part of the CCP's creation myth,
as you're well aware, that they control or ought try to control
or to administer of the Republic of China—Taiwan.
But actually since December 1949,
Taiwan has been operating as a free and independent country.
So not one China.
Well, they've both for a long time,
both the Republic of China government
and the People's Republic of China government maintained
that they were the legitimate government and that there was only one—
that is, a zero sum game.
The Highlander Policy.
It's very much the Highlander Policy.
And unfortunately the US government played into that,
and that was a choice that was made in 1970s.
To continue to play into it...
Yeah, well UN, too.
Countries around the world until this day,
mostly because they're afraid of thinking about any alternative solution.
Because of course, alternatives do exist.
Policy is, it's manmade and it's flexible and we as a sovereign country
can define what our policy is.
And I'm not advocating for anything in particular,
but one of the things that I've tried to do with my research
and that we here as an institute at the Project 2049 try to do
is just lay out the facts as best as we can and one of the facts is—
and this is a little controversial,
a little uncomfortable for people in Beijing—
is that the PRC has never, for a single day,
actually ever controlled or administered Taiwan,
and Taiwan continues to exist as a free and independent country.
Now.
It's not treated by the rest of the world that way,
but that is the objective reality.
And I know because I've lived in China and I've lived in Taiwan
and I've lived in other countries like Japan,
and you can tell it's real.
So do you think the Communist Party's threat of
actually invading Taiwan is at all serious?
Well, as far as I'm aware—and of course
my knowledge on this is limited—
as far as I'm aware, they've not actually
said they are going to invade Taiwan.
What happened was about eight years ago, nine years ago,
the People's Liberation Army got the order from the top leadership
in the Politburo to prepare to be ready to invade Taiwan,
if so ordered, by the year 2020.
It's called the 2020 plan.
So that's a lot of steps.
Be prepared, be ready to be ordered...
If we order you...
To attack.
Right.
And so it's an aspiration.
And this has happened before in the past,
where the CCP civilian leadership has given the armed wing
of the Chinese Communist Party, which is the PLA.
I mean they are PLA too—or they are CCP too—
every officer in the PLA is a member of the Chinese Communist Party.
But it has given the armed wing,
this order that here's what you should aspire to,
here's what you should get ready for, and it's,
you know, I don't want to alarm you or any of your viewers,
but it's pretty incredible when you think about it that this has been
the PLA's marching orders since about 2008.
And this is what drives them.
So when you look at China's sweeping
military reform and modernization program,
when you look at this massive military buildup that is going on in China,
this is the principal, primary objective.
They're preparing for a World War III,
because ultimately that's what would happen.
How would it cause World War III—an invasion of Taiwan?
Well, if the Chinese were to actually attempt
a full-scale invasion and occupation of Taiwan,
it's almost certain that the United States
would come to Taiwan's defense.
And of course that could easily escalate to a very dangerous place.
Why would the US come to Taiwan's defense?
Well, we have defense commitments to Taiwan
under the Taiwan Relations Act.
The Taiwan Relations Act is not a substitute for or replacement
for a mutual defense treaty because of course we did have a mutual
defense treaty with Taiwan from 1955 until 1978—first day of 1979—
and then we broke that when we switched diplomatic relations,
and closed the embassy in Taipei, opened a new embassy in Beijing.
And since that time, the Taiwan Relations Act and also president Reagan's
six assurances to Taiwan and most recently the Taiwan Travel Act,
have become our guidelines, and they lay out our legal obligations
to Taiwan and they also talk a little bit to some of our ethical,
our moral obligations to Taiwan, because Taiwan has long been our ally—
or the Republic of China has long been our ally—historically.
And we fought World War II together.
We were allied throughout the Cold War together.
And now Taiwan has become a democracy since the 1990s.
And because it's a democracy, because the Taiwanese do enjoy
popular sovereignty and they do have American-style elections
every four years the same as we do, there is a certain sentiment
that as a matter of principle,
the United States must help protect Taiwan.
So it's not just the legal obligation that that's spelled out
in the Taiwan Relations Act.
There's a lot more to it than just that.
So what does Taiwan need to defend itself?
Well, that's a very good question And it's not easy to answer
because for the past 20 years,
what has become the world's second largest economy,
second most powerful country on the planet now—the PRC—
has invested a tremendous amount of time and human talent
and national treasure in building up its military,
tailor-making its military, for just this scenario.
And so in light of that, a country like Taiwan—
Taiwan is about the world's 15th largest economy—
it's very difficult for Taiwan on its own to balance,
to keep any kind of balance, military balance,
against a country of China's size.
Taiwan has 23 million people.
China has one point 3 billion-plus people.
And so when you look at the defense of Taiwan, when you look at
Taiwan's national picture, it's not just Taiwan alone;
it's not Taiwan just isolated;
it's not just Taiwan versus China.
There's also that American component that's there,
and there are other democracies around the world like Japan and Australia
that don't support Taiwan in any meaningful sense
in terms of defense hardware
or defense training, but also support Taiwan economically and morally.
Because when you're as isolated as Taiwan is internationally,
when you are a country that is not treated
by the rest of the world as a country,
things like that, that moral support, matters a great deal.
Why does that exist?
What would happen to the regional security
of the area if mainland China did seize control of Taiwan?
So that's one of the interesting things
that PLA generals and staff officers
actually think about and write about.
And you can actually go into internal PLA documents
and you can read about their rationale for engaging
in this type of what they know would be a very,
very dangerous military operation—
not just military,
but political would be very dangerous for their entire regime...
Well, yeah.
Because the United States, Japan, they would all get involved.
Right, and Taiwan itself is actually a lot better defended
than most people realize.
It has a lot of advantages that the PLA is very well aware of...
Like what?
That they go to great lengths to try to cover up.
So for example, this is just one example:
The Taiwan Strait is probably the windiest place
in the northern hemisphere.
And so those waters are extremely difficult to get across,
because of the nature of the currents, the tides,
the sea states, the winds and the waves.
And so there are only two seasons of the year—
and they're both short windows of time;
one is in April; the other's in October—
where you could actually mount a large-scale amphibious operation.
And the problem, of course with April is the fog.
It's very,
very foggy according to PLA studies,
because they've been studying the weather patterns
for almost 70 years in the Taiwan Strait, and it's very foggy in April.
It's kind of rainy.
So it's not ideal, but based on the sea states
it's still the best time to go if you're going to invade Taiwan.
The other best time to go would be October.
October is even better because it's not as foggy.
But the problem with October is sometimes you have late season typhoons.
Taiwan is hit by an average of six to seven typhoons a year.
Also a big problem for and amphibious operations,
but most of those typhoons are between July and September.
And so October often represents a good time of year to go for an invasion.
But again, you can have a late season typhoon
and that could throw things off.
And for the PLA, once they were to secure a beachhead,
then they have to feed that beachhead.
They have to supply it.
They have to build it up.
And that becomes difficult once November rolls around,
because then you have winter squalls.
So that's just one of the many things
that PLA planners and strategists look at it.
That's just the geographic piece.
They also look at the number of beaches that they could land on,
and there's very few.
On the north side of Taiwan, right?
Very few landing spots.
Very few.
And they're shrinking over time for a number of reasons.
So global warming is really playing a big part in defending Taiwan.
Well, global warming and the fight against global warming,
because actually Taiwan is moving towards a more of a green economy
I guess you could say, and whenever they put up one of those windmills
along the coast for wind power,
that actually creates an obstacle for PLA helicopters and for landing ships.
Whenever they put a wave break off the coast in order
to try to limit coastal erosion or whenever they plant sharp spine agave
plants along the beaches, again to try to prevent coastal erosion,
the PLA looks at that and they see a real problem because it's shrinking
their operational space.
And so there's a lot that the Chinese military
looks at when they studied this problem that they have.
They also look at Taiwan's missile capabilities.
They look at Taiwanese intelligence capabilities,
Taiwanese cyber and electronic warfare capabilities.
They look at the air force.
And the list goes on and on.
And so when they look at Taiwan, they see a very big problem
that they have to solve and so they use—
and this gets back to your original question about what would happen
to the region if Taiwan was lost—
well, one of the things that the Chinese military writers
say is that once Taiwan is lost, then it's going to be great for them.
That the geostrategic value of Taiwan is immense because Taiwan
is at the center of the first island chain and once they capture Taiwan,
they can turn it into a garrison state,
which would be very unpleasant place to live because
you'd have a lot of PLA soldiers area to have
a lot of internal security forces there.
You'd have tremendous human rights violations on a massive scale.
It'd be awful for the people that live there and they realize that.
But from their perspective,
it would be a great place to hold Japan hostage
because you can base fighter jets and bombers
and intelligence aircraft on Taiwan
and actually use that along with naval capabilities
to threaten to blockade the Japanese home islands,
to cut off Japan sea lines of communication,
their air lines and communication.
Same applies to South Korea.
Same applies in a different direction to the Philippines.
And so because the Chinese Communist Party would like China
to become a regional hegemon, to become the preponderant political,
economic and military power in Asia,
they look at Taiwan and they see great opportunity.
They see as a very real threat,
but they also see an opportunity and that's one of the rationales
that are driving their military buildup against Taiwan.
In an article you wrote for the Taipei Times you wrote
"the battle for the mind begins before the battle of the fist."
What does that mean?
Well, it's a line I picked up in Kung Fu Panda.
Really?
It is.
And when I saw that—
and I've seen Kung Fu panda many times,
I think it's a great film—
You have children?
I do.
Yes.
And that's where I got it and I thought,
this captures perfectly what Xi Jinping
and the Chinese Communist Party and you know,
the entire security apparatus is doing to Taiwan,
but also against other industrial democracies everywhere,
is they are weakening our ability to put up any kind of resistance
that they're convincing people everywhere—and especially in Taiwan—
that resistance is futile.
That they are going to become the predominant power,
that their economy will surpass us and ours,
and that there's very little that we can do about it,
and so we should just start to cut deals with them now,
and start to submit to their authority.
And one of the reasons that's so important for them,
that strategic psychological warfare that they're waging against Taiwan,
is so incredibly important because Taiwan for a number of reasons
would be extremely, extremely difficult to successfully invade and occupy,
and they realize that.
But it's only difficult if the Taiwanese fight.
If the Taiwanese stand united, if the military, once they're mobilized—
but even if the entire military is not mobilized and you
just have the active duty guys that are on station now—
if they fight, and if the citizens of Taiwan
stand united with the government,
with the military, the Chinese have very,
very little chance of actually succeeding.
Because the Taiwanese can hold out for a very long period of time.
They can fight a protracted struggle.
At least for that month window where they
can actually launch it an invasion.
Yeah, and then some.
In order for the entire world to mobilize
and come to Taiwan's assistance.
And by the entire world, I mostly just mean the United States,
because most other countries are less reliable
as far as Taiwan's concerned.
But—and less capable of course—
because this is something that our military
in the Pacific actually trains to.
This is one of the major driving forces for a lot of the things
that that you see in the Indo Pacific region.
And so that's why China is trying to—or the PRC—
is trying to undermine Taiwan through nonmilitary means.
Absolutely because the military piece works best—
and perhaps it could only work—
if all the other things that precede it work.
If they can weaken resolve, if they can intimidate,
if they can shock and undermine confidence in Taiwan,
then they have a much better chance of actually attaining
their goals and potentially—if they're really,
really good at it and really lucky
and if they can get the United States's help—
they could theoretically convince the Taiwanese
to surrender without much of a fight.
That's their goal, obviously.
Now their chances for success are extremely small because
I don't think Washington is going to do what Beijing wants
and completely sell Taiwan out, and convince the Taiwanese
that they should surrender now and cut a good deal now while they can.
I don't see that.
But there are some Americans that do advocate something
along those lines.
So all this is running through your mind
while you're watching Kung Fu panda?
Absolutely.
Interesting moviegoing experience.
Yeah.
So what, what are some actionable things that the United States
could do to support Taiwan?
Well, the first thing that we need to do,
and I think we should do, as a country is recognize the tremendous threat
that China poses to Taiwan's continued freedom and democracy.
And that's a threat again, that that's much more or is
at least as political as it is economic or military.
And once that is fully recognized then the US could come up with
actionable policy to help, prescriptions to help deal with these symptoms
and the illness that exists across the Taiwan Strait
because it is becoming increasingly unstable.
China is building up for this operation.
And we have no way to predict the future.
So we don't know what Xi Jinping's intentions are.
We can look at some of his rhetoric, we can look at some of his behavior.
We can look at things that are coming out of the PLA.
And when you do look at that, it's a pretty dark picture,
and it's darkening over time.
And so I think it behooves us to show a lot more moral support
to Taiwan that could include things like sending high level officials,
cabinet level officials to Taiwan, high ranking general officers,
admirals to Taiwan, high ranking civilian officials from the Pentagon,
officials from the Seventh Fleet, from the Indo-Pacific Command.
We could also do ship visits to Taiwan, both Navy and Coastguard visits.
We could do bilateral military exercises.
We could start making arms sales to Taiwan regularized because
over the past ten years out of fear for Beijing's reaction,
we've been freezing arm sales to Taiwan and limiting the things
that we'll sell the Taiwanese.
So there's a whole range of things that we could do in that space.
There's a tremendous amount of room for improvement on this.
And so I think we as a country really have our work cut out for us
if we're serious about keeping the peace in the western Pacific.
Thank you very much for joining me today, Ian.
And thank you Chris.
Hey Ian, do you have more to say?
There's no question.
Well, wouldn't it be great if there was some way
people could hear more from you?
That would be awesome.
Fortunately, we have a podcast—China Unscripted—
where we have like an hour's worth of conversation
with this guy.
So if you want to listen,
listen up,
go to China Unscripted.
Link below.
You're going to love it!
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