On this episode of China Uncensored,
pre-trade war trash talk is over.
Now China and the US are in the ring,
and they're going to trade is blows.
Hi, welcome to China Uncensored.
I'm your host, Chris Chappell.
Well, we told you so.
As far back as January of 2017.
How likely is it that Trump is going to
impose tariffs on China?
Oh he's definitely going to do it.
Really?
100 percent.
And last Friday,
Trump did it.
In a White House statement,
Trump said that the US would implement a 25 percent tariff
on $50 billion of goods from China that contain
Industrially significant technologies.
On the same day,
the Office of the United States Trade Representative—
the agency responsible for implementing the tariffs—
issued a news release.
It was helpfully titled
"USTR Issues Tariffs on Chinese Products in Response to Unfair Trade Practices."
Just in case people thought they might be issuing tariffs
in response to, I don't know,
that terrible Chinese movie Operation Red Sea.
With the announcement,
the US Trade Representative published a long list of 1,102 products
that will be hit with tariffs starting July 6.
That list includes stuff we all use every day,
like can-sealing machines, centrifuges and Klystron tubes?
Wait, what's that Shelley?
The tariffs don't include consumer goods,
like mobile phones and TVs?
Well, that's great news.
Looks like American consumers will still be able to enjoy
Wal-Mart's everyday low prices.
And Wal-Mart's everyday low standards for Chinese suppliers.
But just because the new tariffs don't cover consumer goods
doesn't mean they're not a big deal for both countries.
Most of the goods on the tariff list are related to China's
Made in China 2025 strategic plan to dominate
hi-tech industries like robotics, aerospace, and industrial machinery.
The Made in China 2025 plan is designed to drive
future economic growth for China,
in large measure at the expense of the US.
And a lot of these products were made after China
stole American technology.
In some cases, the Chinese military simply hacked in,
stole it, and gave it to local Chinese firms.
In other cases,
it was because of a Chinese law that US companies
doing business in China were required to
set up joint ventures with Chinese firms
and then hand over their intellectual property.
That's why when announcing the tariffs,
Trump said the the US "can no longer tolerate
losing our technology and intellectual property
through unfair economic practices."
One thing Trump hopes to achieve with the tariffs
is to force China to change parts of its state-led economic system
that put foreign companies at a disadvantage.
But with Friday's publication of the tariff list,
Chinese state media got seriously triggered.
An editorial in the Communist Party's official People's Daily
said the US was instigating a trade war
and that it would be "extremely destructive to global trade,
economic globalization, multilateral trade systems
and global production supply chains."
State-run Xinhua News said,
"The wise man builds bridges,
the fool builds walls."
Anyway, state-run CCTV announced that China would fight back.
"China has no choice but to fight back strongly
to resolutely protect its national interests
and the people's interests,
and to resolutely defend globalization
and the multilateral trading system.
We will immediately publish levies
of the same scale and same strength."
And they did.
China announced essentially tit-for-tat tariffs,
also worth $50 billion dollars.
Some of which are also going into effect starting July 6.
China's tariff list on US goods includes
soybeans, beef, and whiskey.
There goes my plan for opening a tofu steakhouse-
slash-whiskey bar in downtown Beijing.
But is a trade war really going to be destructive
as China is making it out to be?
Well, probably not for the US.
Experts say economic growth in US
won't be affected all that much.
Rich Sega, global chief investment strategist at Conning,
says Chinese tariffs won't be "enough to derail
strong growth in the US because lower taxes
and deregulation outweigh trade."
As for China,
this could be a big hit to their Made in China 2025 plan.
And that doesn't even include the additional
$100 billion dollars in tariffs that Trump has threatened.
What's that, Shelley?
Trump just announced a possible additional
$200 billion in tariffs?
It's a good thing China can always just fake its GDP data.
What's interesting about the $200 billion number
is that China doesn't import that much from the US.
So while they can match a 50 billion dollar tariff,
they can't match a 200 billion dollar one.
What they could do instead
is go after US companies in China
and make it harder for them to continue manufacturing
and doing business there.
But if they all end up leaving,
who would the Communist Party steal technology from?
The Chinese regime's rhetoric against US tariffs
is hitting a fever pitch because if we do ever reach an all out trade war,
China is at a disadvantage.
Typically in a trade conflict,
the side that exports the most stuff
has the most to lose.
However, some analysts think that China
could withstand a trade war better than most exporters,
since they don't have to worry about things like elections,
or public pressure, and they control their own media.
I guess there are some benefits to being an authoritarian state.
But regardless of what happens,
there's one clear winner:
Me!
Nothing gives the media delicious fodder
like international conflict.
Especially when it involves...Klystron tubes.
Ok, so maybe it's not going to be that interesting.
But what do you think?
Leave your comments below.
And before you go,
it's time for me to answer another question
from a China Uncensored fan on Patreon.
Ivan A. asks:
"Do you think all Western Liberal Democracies
shoulder much off the blame for
China's continual terrible human rights record
by their reluctance to apply 'Ethical Foreign Policies'
over the last 20 years?"
Great question, Ivan.
I'll put it this way:
Back in the 90s,
US president Bill Clinton and a lot of other countries' leaders
pushed to allow China to get into the World Trade Organization.
The idea, they told us, was that
"Sure, things are bad in China.
But if China opens up its market,
then democracy and human rights will follow."
Doesn't that sound wonderful?
But...if that was really their main motivation
to open up trade with China,
then why weren't those same politicians also pitching
to open up trade with Cuba and North Korea?
Oh wait, those countries don't have
a billion potential consumers.
Yeah, so basically rich companies and powerful politicians
were willing to look the other way when it came to
the Communist Party throwing Falun Gong practitioners
into labor camps in exchange for access to that sweet,
sweet China market.
Wait, how did politicians defend that again?
"I don't believe that we will have more influence on China
by giving them the back of our hand."
Yeah, and how did that work out?
So are Western liberal democracies to blame?
Yes.
For sure.
But the Chinese Communist Party is even more to blame.
They're the ones that are actually throwing innocent people in labor camps.
They took advantage of foreigners' greed to grow China's economy.
Without foreign investment,
the Party would have collapsed a long time ago.
But with all the intellectual property theft,
the Western liberal democracies got their just deserts
for exploiting unfairly cheap Chinese labor.
The Party came out on top.
Of course, now there's trade tariffs
designed to tackle unfair trade practices.
And those could hurt both the Chinese Communist Party
and greedy foreign companies.
But if the tariffs work the way the White House believes they will,
that may change things for the better in the long run.
I guess you'll have to keep watching China Uncensored
to see what happens.
Once again, I'm Chris Chappell. Thanks for watching!
Thanks for watching.
At the end of most episodes,
I answer a question from fans
who support China Uncensored on Patreon.
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